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Wpływ czynników koniunkturalnych na bezrobocie w Polsce

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  • Gaweł, Aleksandra

Abstract

The article analyses the issue of flows between employment and unemployment over the business cycle in Poland. Relationships were examined between the reference cycle, measured by real production and the number of newly registered unemployed persons and persons removed from unemployment rolls who received jobs. A decomposition procedure was applied to data in order to separate cyclical fluctuations, seen as a deviation from trend. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out next. It was found that the outflow from unemployment to employment was a procyclical variable, increasing in upswing phases of the business cycle, and declining in its downswing phases. At the same time, that variable precedes the reference cycle, which suggests labour market activity of enterprises established over the business cycle. On the other hand, flows of registered unemployed persons do not present an unequivocal pattern over the business cycle. This allows to suspect that firms tend to hoard labour in a recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaweł, Aleksandra, 2003. "Wpływ czynników koniunkturalnych na bezrobocie w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2003(3), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:350176
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.350176
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Rosholm, 2001. "Cyclical variations in unemployment duration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 173-191.
    2. Hoyt Bleakley & Ann E. Ferris & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "New data on worker flows during business cycles," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 49-76.
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