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Leading Transportation Indicators: Forecasting Waterborne Commerce Statistics Using Lock Performance Data

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  • Thoma, Mark A.
  • Wilson, Wesley W.

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a forecasting model for transportation data based on the leading economic indicators literature. The specific application is to forecast river tonnages. Waterborne commerce data reflect tonnages of commodities moved on various rivers and in various directions. They are released after the Lock Performance Monitoring System data which reflect tonnages moving through specific locks. The model presented here forecasts waterborne commerce data from lock performance data. The results suggest that even a very simple model can provide precise forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Thoma, Mark A. & Wilson, Wesley W., 2005. "Leading Transportation Indicators: Forecasting Waterborne Commerce Statistics Using Lock Performance Data," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndjtrf:206758
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.206758
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206758/files/826-936-1-PB.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark A. Thoma & Wesley W. Wilson, 2007. "Market Adjustments over Transportation Networks: A Time Series Analysis of Grain Movements on the Mississippi Inland Waterway System," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(2), pages 149-171, May.
    2. Wesley Clair Mitchell & Arthur F. Burns, 1938. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc38-1.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    4. Tang, Xiuli, 2001. "Time Series Forecasting of Quarterly Barge Grain Tonnage on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 40(3).
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    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena I. Asborno & Sarah Hernandez & Taslima Akter, 2020. "Multicommodity port throughput from truck GPS and lock performance data fusion," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 22(2), pages 196-217, June.

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