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A Time-Series Analysis Of The U.S. Durum Wheat And Pasta Markets

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  • Babula, Ronald A.
  • Rich, Karl M.

Abstract

A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly dynamic response characteristics are examined: response reaction times, direction and pattern of quarterly responses, response durations, response multipliers, and strength of durum/pasta market interrelationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Babula, Ronald A. & Rich, Karl M., 2001. "A Time-Series Analysis Of The U.S. Durum Wheat And Pasta Markets," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 32(2), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlofdr:27818
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.27818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Babula, Ronald A., 1997. "Economic Effects Of A Countervailing Duty Order On The U.S. Lamb Meat Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-12, April.
    2. Julian M. Alston & Richard S. Gray & Daniel A. Sumner, 1999. "The Wheat War of 1994: Reply," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(1), pages 99-104, March.
    3. Julian M. Alston & Richard Gray & Daniel A. Sumner, 1994. "The Wheat War of 1994," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 42(3), pages 231-251, November.
    4. Ronald A. Babula & Cathy L. Jabara, 1999. "The Wheat War of 1994: Comment," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(1), pages 89-98, March.
    5. David A. Bessler, 1984. "An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucia Recchia & Alessio Cappelli & Enrico Cini & Francesco Garbati Pegna & Paolo Boncinelli, 2019. "Environmental Sustainability of Pasta Production Chains: An Integrated Approach for Comparing Local and Global Chains," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Babula, Ronald A. & Newman, Douglas & Rogowsky, Robert A., 2006. "A Dynamic Model of U.S. Sugar-Related Markets: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 37(2), pages 1-25, July.

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