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Einfluss des Schweinezyklus auf die Preistransmission zwischen Ferkel- und Schlachtschweinepreisen in Niedersachsen

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  • Holst, C.
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, S.

Abstract

Erstmals in der Literatur wird die Preistransmissionsbeziehung zwischen Ferkel- und Schlachtschweinepreisen analysiert. Bei den Berechnungen finden insbesondere langfristige Schwingungen des Schweinezyklus sowie saisonal bedingte Preisschwankungen der niedersächsischen Notierungen für Ferkel und Mastschweine Berücksichtigung. Die wöchentlichen Preisbeobachtungen zwischen 1990 und 2007 können bei der Betrachtung des gesamten Zeitraumes keinen Hinweis auf das Vorliegen von asymmetrischer Preistransmission erbringen. Eine Aufteilung der Datenreihen nach Zugehörigkeit zu verschiedenen Phasen des Schweinezyklus ergibt innerhalb dieser Phasen aber durchaus unterschiedliche Preisasymmetrien. In den Zeiträumen der Preistäler des Schweinzyklus liegt eine Preisasymmetrie zugunsten der Mastschweinehalter vor, während die Ferkelerzeuger in der Phase ansteigender Preise innerhalb des Schweinezyklus von ihrer Verhandlungsposition gegenüber den Mästern profitieren können. Diese Ergebnisse können als Anzeichen für eine unterschiedliche Verteilung der Verhandlungsmacht zwischen Ferkelerzeugern und Mastschweinehaltern in Abhängigkeit von der Phase des Schweinezyklus interpretiert werden.
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Suggested Citation

  • Holst, C. & von Cramon-Taubadel, S., 2011. "Einfluss des Schweinezyklus auf die Preistransmission zwischen Ferkel- und Schlachtschweinepreisen in Niedersachsen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewipr:260287
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.260287
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    1. Rosales, Francisco & von-Cramon, Stephan, 2015. "Analysis of Price Transmission using a Nonparametric Error Correction Model with Time-Varying Cointegration," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 230227, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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