IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/agreko/8009.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

SAFEX maize price volatility scrutinised

Author

Listed:
  • Geyser, Mariette
  • Cutts, Michela

Abstract

Commodity prices in general are known to have a high volatility. This is in fact what attracts speculators. The South African futures exchange (SAFEX) is not immune to this volatility. Volatility increases the risk of paying higher prices for a specific commodity, and it also makes the use of derivative instruments to hedge against price risk more expensive. Given the importance of South Africa as a regional supplier of maize and price discovery mechanism, investigations into the volatility of the maize price are not only important, but also indispensable if all parties involved are to manage this risk. The question therefore is whether the SAFEX maize price volatility can be explained by using fundamental factors or whether this volatility is unexplainably high.

Suggested Citation

  • Geyser, Mariette & Cutts, Michela, 2007. "SAFEX maize price volatility scrutinised," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(3), pages 1-15, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:8009
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/8009/files/46030291.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.8009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2006. "Putting Risk in Its Proper Place," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 280-289, March.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and market access," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 357-376, November.
    3. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    4. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Kneafsey, Devin P. & Claessens, Stijn & DEC, 1993. "Forecasting volatility in commodity markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1226, The World Bank.
    5. Szego, Giorgio, 2005. "Measures of risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 5-19, May.
    6. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    7. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
    8. Benjamin H. Cohen, 1999. "Derivatives, Volatility and Price Discovery," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 167-202, July.
    9. Nelson, Daniel B., 1992. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models I : Getting the right variance with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 61-90.
    10. Michael Nwogugu, 2005. "Towards multi-factor models of decision making and risk: A critique of Prospect Theory and related approaches, part I," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 150-162, March.
    11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayesha Sayed & Christo Auret, 2020. "Volatility transmission in the South African white maize futures market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 71-88, March.
    2. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, Enero-Jun.
    3. Sihlongonyane, L.N., 2021. "Evaluating the prospect to hedge maize price risk against the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Commodity Derivatives Market prices: The case of Eswatini," Research Theses 334770, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, March.
    2. Font, Begoña, 1998. "Modelización de series temporales financieras. Una recopilación," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3664, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, Enero-Jun.
    4. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 747, Econometric Society.
    5. Obinwata, Bede & OWURU, Joel & FARAYIBI, Adesoji, 2016. "Exchange Rate Trends and Export Performance in Nigeria: A Descriptive Approach," MPRA Paper 75526, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2016.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-042 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Prigent, Jean-Luc & Renault, Olivier & Scaillet, Olivier, 2004. "Option pricing with discrete rebalancing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 133-161, January.
    8. Fornari, Fabio & Mele, Antonio, 2001. "Recovering the probability density function of asset prices using garch as diffusion approximations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 83-110, March.
    9. Mustafa Caglayan & Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2013. "Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 905-927, April.
    10. F. Fornari & A. Mele, 1998. "ARCH Models and Option Pricing : The Continuous Time Connection," THEMA Working Papers 98-30, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. E. M. Ekanayake & Ranjini L. Thaver & Daniel Plante, 2012. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On South Africa’S Trade With The European Union," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 13-26.
    12. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    13. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    14. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    15. Carlos Moslares & E. M. Ekanayake, 2015. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Commodity Trade Between The United States And Spain," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(4), pages 37-49.
    16. Yueh-Neng Lin & Ken Hung, 2008. "Is Volatility Priced?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 39-75, May.
    17. Monica Billio & Bertrand Maillet & Loriana Pelizzon, 2022. "A meta-measure of performance related to both investors and investments characteristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1405-1447, June.
    18. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    19. Lin Zhao & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2017. "Decision-making in incomplete markets with ambiguity—a case study of a gas field acquisition," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1759-1782, November.
    20. Eslamloueyan, Karim & Fatemifar, Neda, 2021. "Does deeper financial integration lead to macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 437-451.
    21. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2003. "How Does Systematic Risk Impact Stocks ? A Study On the French Financial Market," Risk and Insurance 0308004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:8009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeasaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.