IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/agreko/347519.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Supply Response of Maize in South Africa: A Nerlovian Partial Adjustment Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shoko, R.R.
  • Chaminuka, P.
  • Belete, A.

Abstract

Maize is the most important crop in South Africa, being both the major feed grain for livestock and the primary staple food crop for the majority of the population. Farmers’ production decisions regarding maize and their response to policy incentives are critical for national food security and regional trade. The aim of the study was to estimate the supply response of the South African maize sector to price and non-price incentives. A Nerlovian partial adjustment model was applied to historical time series data of area under maize cultivation, measured in hectares spanning from 1980-2012 to determine the supply response. Results indicate a short-run price elasticity of 0.24 and a long-run price elasticity of 0.36, signifying that maize farmers are less sensitive to price changes than non-price incentives. The results confirm that non-price incentives such as rainfall and technology seem to have more effect on maize supply than price incentives in South Africa. Given the findings, the study recommends policies and programmes that focus more on non- price incentives, such as technology and infrastructure development, investment in irrigation and research services, as a means of stabilising maize production in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoko, R.R. & Chaminuka, P. & Belete, A., 2016. "Estimating the Supply Response of Maize in South Africa: A Nerlovian Partial Adjustment Model Approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 55(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:347519
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.347519
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/347519/files/Estimating%20the%20Supply%20Response%20of%20Maize%20in%20South%20Africa%20%20A%20Nerlovian%20Partial%20Adjustment%20Model%20Approach.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.347519?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dougherty, Christopher, 2011. "Introduction to Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 4, number 9780199567089.
    2. Breitenbach, Marthinus C. & Fenyes, Tamas I., 2000. "Maize and wheat production trends in South Africa in a deregulated environment," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(3), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Fang Xu, 2012. "The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 619-638, June.
    4. Kenneth A. Foster & Anthony Mwanaumo, 1995. "Estimation of dynamic maize supply response in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 99-107, April.
    5. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-292, June.
    6. J. Mohan Rao, 1989. "Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Rao, J. Mohan, 1989. "Agricultural supply response: A survey," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Leaver, Rosemary, 2003. "Measuring The Supply Response Function Of Tobacco In Zimbabwe," 2003 Annual Conference, October 2-3, 2003, Pretoria, South Africa 19079, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
    9. Agbola, Frank W. & Evans, Nigel, 2012. "Modelling rice and cotton acreage response in the Murray Darling Basin in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 74-82.
    10. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosterhuizen, K. & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "Grain-supply response in Ethiopia: An error-correction approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-16, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2008. "U.S. Market Potential For Dried Distillers Grain With Solubles," Working Papers 08-13, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    2. Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas W., 2008. "Yield Response To Prices: Implications For Policy Modeling," Working papers 45969, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian & Balie, Jean, 2014. "Supply response along the value chain in selected SSA countries: the case of grains," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197193, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Jouf, C. & Lawson, L.A., 2022. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: Cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Eric B. Schneider, 2014. "Prices and production: agricultural supply response in fourteenth-century England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(1), pages 66-91, February.
    6. Yerushalmi, Erez, 2012. "Measuring the administrative water allocation mechanism and agricultural amenities," Economic Research Papers 270633, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    7. Bhanupong Nidhiprabha, 2019. "Commodity Price Cycles, the Agricultural Trap, and Thailand's Incessant Subsidies," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(2), pages 49-69, Summer.
    8. Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997. "The impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply: a synthesis of available results," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 17-34, March.
    9. Jonathon Siegle & Gregory Astill & Zoë Plakias & Daniel Tregeagle, 2024. "Estimating perennial crop supply response: A methodology literature review," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 159-180, March.
    10. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Jeffrey D. Vitale & Hamady Djourra & Aminata Sidibé, 2009. "Estimating the supply response of cotton and cereal crops in smallholder production systems: recent evidence from Mali," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 519-533, September.
    12. repec:ags:aaea22:335666 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Md Zabid Iqbal & Bruce A. Babcock, 2018. "Global growing‐area elasticities of key agricultural crops estimated using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 681-690, November.
    14. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    15. Syed Asad Raza ABIDI & Aishah Bashir SHAH & Ali Hassan HALEPOTO & Faiz.M.SHAIKH, 2013. "Forecasting Trend Of Wheat Prices In Pakistan," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(8), pages 71-75, September.
    16. Chouaib Jouf & Laté Lawson, 2021. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Nehring, Richard F., 1991. "Output and Input Subsidy Policy Options in Bangladesh," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 43(2), pages 1-13.
    18. Abdi, Asad Raza & Halepoto, Ali Hassan & Shah, Aisha Bashir & Shaikh, Faiz M., 2013. "Time Series Analysis of Wheat flour Price Shocks in Pakistan: A Case Analysis," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 3(10), pages 1-7, October.
    19. Vavra, Pavel & Colman, David, 2003. "The analysis of UK crop allocation at the farm level: implications for supply response analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 697-713, May.
    20. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Rules versus Discretion in Food Storage Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1029-1044.
    21. Liang, Yan & Miller, J. Corey & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2011. "Crop Supply Response under Risk: Impacts of Emerging Issues on Southeastern U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 1-14, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:347519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeasaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.