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Whether commodity futures market in agriculture is efficient in price discovery? - An econometric analysis

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  • Easwaran, R. Salvadi
  • Ramasundaram, P.

Abstract

In any agriculture-dominated economy, like India, farmers face not only yield risk but price risk as well. Commodity futures and derivatives have a crucial role to play in the price risk management process, especially in agriculture. The present study is an investigation into the futures markets in agricultural commodities in India. The statistical analysis of data on price discovery in a sample of four agricultural commodities traded in futures exchanges have indicated that price discovery does not occur in agricultural commodity futures market. The econometric analysis of the relationship between price return, volume, market depth and volatility has shown that the market volume and depth are not significantly influenced by the return and volatility of futures as well as spot markets. The Bartlett’s test statistic has been found insignificant in both the exchanges, signifying that the futures and spot markets are not integrated. The exchange-specific problems like thin volume and low market depth, infrequent trading, lack of effective participation of trading members, non-awareness of futures market among farmers, no well-developed spot market in the vicinity of futures market, poor physical delivery, absence of a well-developed grading and standardization system and market imperfections have been found as the major deficiencies retarding the growth of futures market. The future of futures market in respect of agricultural commodities in India, calls for a more focused and pragmatic approach from the government. The Forward Markets Commission and SEBI have a greater role in addressing all the institutional and policy level constraints so as to make the agricultural commodity futures and derivatives a meaningful, purposeful and vibrant segment for price risk management in the Indian agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Easwaran, R. Salvadi & Ramasundaram, P., 2008. "Whether commodity futures market in agriculture is efficient in price discovery? - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 21(Conferenc).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aerrae:47883
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.47883
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Camilla Andersson & Mintewab Bezabih & Andrea Mannberg, 2015. "The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and spatial price dispersion," GRI Working Papers 204, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Andersson, Camilla & Bezabih, Mintewab & Mannberg, Andrea, 2017. "The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and spatial price dispersion," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Yingman Wang & Yubin Huangfu, 2024. "The Impact of Pig Futures on the Price Transmission in the Pig Industry Chain during Market Shocks," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Suranjana Joarder, 2018. "The Commodity Futures Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Case of Oil and Oilseed Commodities in India," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 33-50, September.
    5. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D. R. Agarwal, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Indian Commodity Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 771-789, June.
    6. Sarveshwar Kumar Inani, 2018. "Price Discovery and Efficiency of Indian Agricultural Commodity Futures Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 129-154, March.
    7. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2017. "Empirical Investigation on Food Inflation and Efficiency Issues in Indian Agri-futures Market," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 156-165, November.
    8. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2018. "Global Financial Crisis and Price Risk Management in Gold Futures Market- Evidences from Indian & US Markets," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(68), pages 111-120, June.
    9. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D.R. Agarwal, 2017. "Hedging Efficiency of Indian Commodity Futures," Paradigm, , vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, June.
    10. A.N. Vijayakumar, 2023. "Declining trade interest in Indian commodity derivatives: a survey-based study on cardamom futures contract," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3), pages 333-346.
    11. Dragan Miljkovic & Cole Goetz, 2023. "Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 104-117, January.
    12. Andersson, Camilla & Bezabih, Mintewab & Mannberg, Andrea, 2015. "The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and spatial price dispersion," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 209963, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    13. Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Causality in Relation to Futures and Cash Prices in the Wheat Market," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-10, June.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

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