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The impact of oil prices on sectoral returns: an empirical analysis from Borsa Istanbul

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  • Gaye GENCER

    (Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Sercan DEMIRALAY

    (Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

Oil prices affecting production costs, inflation rates and therefore economic growth have a direct impact on stock market returns. In the last two decades sharp increases in oil prices led way to stock market collapses which were transmitted to the global economy as downturns. This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and sectoral returns of 18 sub-indices from Borsa Istanbul. We use monthly data for the period between January 2002 and April 2013. We apply multivariate time series analysis by conducting VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) methodology to explore the short-run and the long-run dynamics for the series under investigation. We also employ impulse response and Granger causality methods to investigate the structural relationship between the variables. We figure out a long-run equilibrium relation and a uni-directional causality from oil prices to chemicalpetroleum- plastic sub-index as oil prices directly affect the revenues of the companies operating in this sector. For the other sub-indices the empirical results suggest no longrun equilibrium relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaye GENCER & Sercan DEMIRALAY, 2013. "The impact of oil prices on sectoral returns: an empirical analysis from Borsa Istanbul," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(12(589)), pages 7-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xx:y:2013:i:12(589):p:7-24
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    Cited by:

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    3. Wu, Junhao & Dong, Jinghan & Wang, Zhaocai & Hu, Yuan & Dou, Wanting, 2023. "A novel hybrid model based on deep learning and error correction for crude oil futures prices forecast," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Cakan, Esin & Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2021. "Oil Prices and Firm Returns in an Emerging Market," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 166-187, May.
    5. Zaroug Osman Bilal & Shariq Mohammed & Yassir Yaqoub Ali, 2021. "Oil Price Fluctuation and Firm Performance in Developing Economy: Evidence from Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 381-387.
    6. Civcir, Irfan & Akkoc, Ugur, 2021. "Non-linear ARDL approach to the oil-stock nexus: Detailed sectoral analysis of the Turkish stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sector indices; vector autoregression; vector error correction; impulse-responses; forecast error variance decompositions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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