IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aes/amfeco/v20y2018is12p870.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Marius-Cristian Neacsu

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Silviu Negut

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Gheorghe Vlasceanu

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Tourism is considered an opportunity for ensuring sustainable growth and reducing economic gaps for many less developed countries and regions. Being one of the most dynamics industries, tourism proves to be strongly resilient, with a high level of involvement and multiplication for receiver economies. The multiplication potential is, however, dependent upon a series of factors (endogenous and exogenous), insufficiently analysed in the literature, and the impact on growth and convergence is controversial. This paper aims to bring additional insights from this perspective, the main purpose of the research being to identify the macroeconomic determinants responsible for the higher values of the tourism multiplier effect and to highlight the potential of this industry to reduce the disparities between the economies of the European Union EU. Using the Stepwise regression and a series of indicators that associate the economic, social and spatial dimensions of European tourism, the main determinants of multiplier effects (on GDP and job creation) are identified and, then, the processes of multiplication from the perspective of centre-periphery dynamics are analysed. The research results indicated that tourism development in the Union reflects a centre-periphery model and has a high potential for contributing to reducing intra-EU disparities.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius-Cristian Neacsu & Silviu Negut & Gheorghe Vlasceanu, 2018. "The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Tourism," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 20(S12), pages 870-870, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:20:y:2018:i:s12:p:870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_2771.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Institute for Economics and Peace, 2017. "Global Peace Index 2017," Working Papers id:11991, eSocialSciences.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beata Ślusarczyk & Katarzyna Grondys, 2019. "Parametric Conditions of High Financial Risk in the SME Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Alisa Kazakova & Insin Kim, 2021. "Geopolitical-Risk and Economic Policy—Uncertainty Impacts on Tourist Flows from Neighboring Countries: A Wavelet Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Veli YILANCI & Sertaç HOPOĞLU & Hakan ERYÜZLÜ, 2023. "The impact of the economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on tourism demand of Mexico," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 147-164, Autumn.
    4. Mihail Ovidiu Tănase & Răzvan Dina & Florin-Lucian Isac & Sergiu Rusu & Puiu Nistoreanu & Cosmin Nicolae Mirea, 2022. "Romanian Wine Tourism—A Paved Road or a Footpath in Rural Tourism?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024. "Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
    5. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 150-161, February.
    6. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Echoes of Instability: How Geopolitical Risks Shape Government Debt Holdings," CESifo Working Paper Series 11235, CESifo.
    7. NguyenHuu, Tam, 2022. "The impacts of rare disasters on asset returns and risk premiums in advanced economies (1870–2015)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    8. Islam, Md. Saiful & Islam, Md. Monirul & Rehman, Anis Ur & Alam, Md. Fakhre & Tarique, Md., 2024. "Mineral production amidst the economy of uncertainty: Response of metallic and non-metallic minerals to geopolitical turmoil in Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    11. Marina Diakonova & Luis Molina & Hannes Mueller & Javier J. Pérez & Cristopher Rauh, 2022. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 2232, Banco de España.
    12. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2023. "The spillover effects of rising energy prices following 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 680-695.
    14. Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
    15. Alessandro Paolo Rigamonti & Giulio Greco & Mariarita Pierotti & Alessandro Capocchi, 2024. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and earnings management: evidence from commodity firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1615-1649, May.
    16. Zhibing Li & Jia Liu & Jie Liu & Xiaoyu Liu & Yinglun Zhu, 2024. "The causal effect of political risk on the stock market: Evidence from a natural experiment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 145-162, March.
    17. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    18. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal, 2020. "Oil price jumps and the uncertainty of oil supplies in a geopolitical perspective: The role of OPEC’s spare capacity," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 18-35.
    19. Asongu, Simplice & Acha-Anyi, Paul, 2019. "Global Tourism and Waves of Terror: Perspectives from Military Expenditure," MPRA Paper 101793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; European Union; tourism multiplier effect; stepwise regression; tourism competiveness; centre-periphery pattern.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • M16 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - International Business Administration
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:20:y:2018:i:s12:p:870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentin Dumitru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aseeero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.