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Will Eastern European Migrants Happily Enter the German Pension System after the EU Eastern Enlargement?

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  • Tim Krieger
  • Christoph Sauer

Abstract

A major concern in Western Europe and especially in Germany is that inflows of workers will occur with the EU eastern enlargement, and they will be net beneficiaries of the domestic social security systems. We introduce a model and present evidence by comparing pension systems in the main source and target countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic; Germany) that shows that immigrants most likely have to face a burden from entering the German pension system. Only if the total number of immigrants is sufficiently large may the burden change into a gain. We conclude that if migration takes place it will do so despite – not because of – the existence of the pension systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Krieger & Christoph Sauer, 2004. "Will Eastern European Migrants Happily Enter the German Pension System after the EU Eastern Enlargement?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 124(1), pages 1-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v124_y2004_i1_q1_p1-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Pension Provision in Germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Holger Bonin, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 26(4), pages 547-564, October.
    3. Axel Borsch‐Supan & Anette Reil‐Held, 2001. "How Much is Transfer and How Much is Insurance in a Pay‐as‐you‐go System? The German Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(3), pages 505-524, September.
    4. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Krieger, 2004. "Public pensions and immigration policy when voters are differently skilled," Public Economics 0411006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thies Büttner & Robert Schwager, 2003. "Regionale Verteilungseffekte der Hochschulfinanzierung und ihre Konsequenzen," Departmental Discussion Papers 119, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Ileana TACHE & Vlad Dumitrache, 2012. "New Welfare Regimes In Eastern Europe: The Cases Of Romania And Bulgaria," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 59-84, December.
    4. Renate Ohr, 2009. "European Monetary Union at Ten: Had the German Maastricht Critics Been Wrong?," Departmental Discussion Papers 141, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Corinna Ahlfeld, 2009. "The scapegoat of heterogeneity - How fragmentation influences political decisionmaking," Departmental Discussion Papers 143, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. Guisan, Maria-Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Carballas, David, 2004. "Economic Growth and Cycles in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia: A comparison with Spain, Austria and other EU countries, 1950-2002," Economic Development 79, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    7. Richard R. Ochmann, 2005. "The first EU Eastern enlargement: impacts on the German economy and public perceptions," IWE Working Papers 158, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H73 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Interjurisdictional Differentials and Their Effects
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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