IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/ej37-si2-garnier.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influence of Policy Regime Risks on Investments in Innovative Energy Technology

Author

Listed:
  • Ernesto Garnier and Reinhard Madlener

Abstract

This paper dissects the ways in which policy regime risks influence decisions over innovative energy technology investments. We apply compound real options methodology to evaluate the investment in a virtual power plant platform and distributed energy resource (DER) assets in view of volatile electricity market prices and an uncertain future electricity market design. The analysis reveals two aspects of policy regime risks: a policy content effect relating to actual market dynamics resulting from a (new) policy regime, and a policy process effect relating to (uncertainty about) the speed and probability of a regime change. The paper underlines the importance of predictable policymaking to stimulate risky investment. It further details the need to account for technology-specific investment responses to different policy regimes and risks, caused by different degrees of market versus subsidy exposure and differences between platform versus non-platform technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernesto Garnier and Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "The Influence of Policy Regime Risks on Investments in Innovative Energy Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Bollino-M).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej37-si2-garnier
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2735
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Hagemann & Christoph Weber, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and its Determinants in The German Intraday Market for Electricity," EWL Working Papers 1317, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2013.
    2. Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Market Value of Variable Renewables. The Effect of Solar and Wind Power Variability on their Relative Price," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/36, European University Institute.
    3. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    4. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    5. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    6. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    7. Garnier, Ernesto & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Day-Ahead versus Intraday Valuation of Demand-Side Flexibility for Photovoltaic and Wind Power Systems," FCN Working Papers 17/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    8. Alexander, David Richard & Mo, Mengjia & Stent, Alan Fraser, 2012. "Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 114-122.
    9. Garnier, Ernesto & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Balancing Forecast Errors in Continuous-Trade Intraday Markets," FCN Working Papers 2/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    10. Fan, Lin & Norman, Catherine S. & Patt, Anthony G., 2012. "Electricity capacity investment under risk aversion: A case study of coal, gas, and concentrated solar power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 54-61.
    11. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Carlos Zozaya-Gorostiza, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Information Technology: Acquisition and Development Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 57-70, January.
    12. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    13. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
    14. Weber, Christoph, 2010. "Adequate intraday market design to enable the integration of wind energy into the European power systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3155-3163, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oguzhan Cepni, Duc Khuong Nguyen, and Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "News Media and Attention Spillover across Energy Markets: A Powerful Predictor of Crude Oil Futures Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    2. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    3. Florian Habermacher & Paul Lehmann, 2020. "Commitment Versus Discretion in Climate and Energy Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 39-67, May.
    4. Amedeo Argentiero, Tarek Atalla, Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli, and Paolo Polinori, 2017. "Comparing Renewable Energy Policies in EU-15, U.S. and China: A Bayesian DSGE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    5. Amedeo Argentiero & Tarek Atalla & Simona Bigerna & Silvia Micheli & Paolo Polinori, 2017. "Comparing Renewable Energy Policies in E.U.15, U.S. and China: A Bayesian DSGE Model," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(1_suppl), pages 77-96, June.
    6. Frank A. Wolak, 2016. "Level versus Variability Trade-offs in Wind and Solar Generation Investments: The Case of California," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Bollino-M).
    7. Frank A. Wolak, 2016. "Level versus Variability Trade-offs in Wind and Solar Generation Investments: The Case of California," NBER Working Papers 22494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Specht, Jan Martin & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "Energy Supplier 2.0: A conceptual business model for energy suppliers aggregating flexible distributed assets and policy issues raised," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernesto Garnier & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "The Influence of Policy Regime Risks on Investments in Innovative Energy Technology," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2_suppl), pages 145-160, June.
    2. Garnier, Ernesto & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Day-Ahead versus Intraday Valuation of Demand-Side Flexibility for Photovoltaic and Wind Power Systems," FCN Working Papers 17/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    3. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    4. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    6. Pape, Christian, 2018. "The impact of intraday markets on the market value of flexibility — Decomposing effects on profile and the imbalance costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 186-201.
    7. Garnier, Ernesto & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Balancing Forecast Errors in Continuous-Trade Intraday Markets," FCN Working Papers 2/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    8. Joan Batalla-Bejerano & Elisa Trujillo-Baute, 2015. "Analysing the sensitivity of electricity system operational costs to deviations in supply and demand," Working Papers 2015/8, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    9. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    10. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Helga Meier & Nicos Christofides & Gerry Salkin, 2001. "Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty---An Integrated Approach Using Contingent Claims Analysis and Integer Programming," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(2), pages 196-206, April.
    12. Zipp, Alexander, 2015. "Revenue prospects of photovoltaic in Germany—Influence opportunities by variation of the plant orientation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-97.
    13. Christoph Wolter & Henrik Klinge Jacobsen & Lorenzo Zeni & Georgios Rogdakis & Nicolaos A. Cutululis, 2020. "Overplanting in offshore wind power plants in different regulatory regimes," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), May.
    14. Sandrine Mathy & Patrick Criqui & Katharina Knoop & Manfred Fischedick & Sascha Samadi, 2016. "Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 47-62, June.
    15. Savelli, Iacopo & Hardy, Jeffrey & Hepburn, Cameron & Morstyn, Thomas, 2022. "Putting wind and solar in their place: Internalising congestion and other system-wide costs with enhanced contracts for difference in Great Britain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    17. Simshauser, P., 2019. "On the impact of government-initiated CfD’s in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1901, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Wang, Jingxing & Chung, Seokhyun & AlShelahi, Abdullah & Kontar, Raed & Byon, Eunshin & Saigal, Romesh, 2021. "Look-ahead decision making for renewable energy: A dynamic “predict and store” approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    19. René Aïd & Matteo Basei & Huyên Pham, 2017. "The coordination of centralised and distributed generation," Working Papers hal-01517165, HAL.
    20. Dalila B. M. M. Fontes & Luís Camões & Fernando A. C. C. Fontes, 2007. "Real Options using Markov Chains: an application to Production Capacity Decisions," FEP Working Papers 246, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej37-si2-garnier. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Williams (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.