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The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel

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  • Dermot Gately

Abstract

This paper, based on an econometric analysis of annual data since 1965, examines the prospects for US highway travel and fuel demand, disaggregated by vehicle type (cars and light trucks). Despite projections by the US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) of virtually no change in highway fuel use in the 1990s, we project a growth rate of about 1.3% annually. DOE/EIA assumes extraordinarily rapid improvement in fuel efficiency and relatively slow growth in large trucks' vehicle miles. We project slower gains in fuel efficiency, for all types of vehicles, and faster growth for large trucks' vehicle miles.

Suggested Citation

  • Dermot Gately, 1990. "The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1990v11-03-a03
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    Cited by:

    1. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Income's Effect On Car and Vehicle Ownership, Worldwide: 1960-2015," Working Papers 97-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    2. Plotkin, Steven E & Greene, David, 1997. "Prospects for improving the fuel economy of light-duty vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1179-1188, December.
    3. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    4. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
    5. Choo, Sangho, 2003. "Aggregate Relationships between Telecommunications and Travel: Structural Equation Modeling of Time Series Data," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4p78h623, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Sambracos, Evangelos & Paravantis, John, 2006. "A comparative assessment of aggregate car ownership model estimation methodologies," MPRA Paper 52294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan, 2002. "Impacts of Home-Based Telecommuting on Vehicle-Miles Traveled: A Nationwide Time Series Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2gj976x6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    8. Llorca, Manuel & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Energy efficiency and rebound effect in European road freight transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 98-110.
    9. Grepperud, Sverre & Rasmussen, Ingeborg, 2004. "A general equilibrium assessment of rebound effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 261-282, March.
    10. Greene, David L, 1998. "Why CAFE worked," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 595-613, July.
    11. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
    12. Espey, Molly, 1996. "Watching the fuel gauge: An international model of automobile fuel economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 93-106, April.
    13. Bonilla, David & Schmitz, Klaus E. & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 217-227.
    14. Bonilla, David, 2009. "Fuel demand on UK roads and dieselisation of fuel economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3769-3778, October.
    15. Gomez, Juan & Vassallo, José Manuel, 2015. "Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 282-297.
    16. Martijn Brons & Peter Nijkamp & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2006. "A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-106/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Winebrake, James J. & Green, Erin H. & Comer, Bryan & Corbett, James J. & Froman, Sarah, 2012. "Estimating the direct rebound effect for on-road freight transportation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 252-259.
    18. Carpenter, Rachel A., 2010. "Sacramento’s Fix I-5 Project: Impact on Bus Transit Ridership," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8mq0g9gw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    19. Binswanger, Mathias, 2001. "Technological progress and sustainable development: what about the rebound effect?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 119-132, January.
    20. Sheng, Mingyue & Sharp, Basil, 2019. "Aggregate road passenger travel demand in New Zealand: A seemingly unrelated regression approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 55-68.
    21. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    22. Wang, Jiayu & Yu, Shuao & Liu, Tiansen, 2021. "A theoretical analysis of the direct rebound effect caused by energy efficiency improvement of private consumers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 171-181.
    23. Anson, Sam & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3608-3620, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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