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How a "Low Carbon" Innovation Can Fail--Tales from a "Lost Decade" for Carbon Capture, Transport, and Sequestration (CCTS)

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  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Johannes Herold
  • Pao-Yu Oei

Abstract

This paper analyzes the discrepancy between the high hopes placed in Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) and the meager results that have been observed in reality, and advances several explanations for what we call a "lost decade" for CCTS. We trace the origins of the high hopes placed in this technology by industry and policymakers alike, and show how the large number of demonstration projects required for a breakthrough did not follow. We then identify possible explanations for the "lost decade", such as incumbent resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. We conclude it is likely that we have to live for quite some time with a cognitive dissonance in which top-down models continue to place hope in the CCTS-technology by reducing its expected fixed and variable costs, and bottom-up researchers continue to count failed pilot projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian von Hirschhausen & Johannes Herold & Pao-Yu Oei, 2012. "How a "Low Carbon" Innovation Can Fail--Tales from a "Lost Decade" for Carbon Capture, Transport, and Sequestration (CCTS)," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:eeepjl:1_2_a08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gibbins, Jon & Chalmers, Hannah, 2008. "Carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4317-4322, December.
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    2. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    3. McLaughlin, Hope & Littlefield, Anna A. & Menefee, Maia & Kinzer, Austin & Hull, Tobias & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Kim, Jinsoo & Griffiths, Steven, 2023. "Carbon capture utilization and storage in review: Sociotechnical implications for a carbon reliant world," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Oei, Pao-Yu & Hermann, Hauke & Herpich, Philipp & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lünenbürger, Benjamin & Schult, Christoph, 2020. "Coal phase-out in Germany – Implications and policies for affected regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Roger Fouquet, 2012. "Economics of Energy and Climate Change: Origins, Developments and Growth," Working Papers 2012-08, BC3.
    6. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    7. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2015. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 229-244.
    8. Knopf, Brigitte & Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva, 2015. "The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 50-60.
    9. Oei, Pao-Yu & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Löffler, Konstantin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2020. "Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 103-120.
    10. Massol, Olivier & Tchung-Ming, Stéphane & Banal-Estañol, Albert, 2018. "Capturing industrial CO2 emissions in Spain: Infrastructures, costs and break-even prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 545-560.
    11. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2014. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 62-75.
    12. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    13. Ludig, Sylvie & Schmid, Eva & Haller, Markus & Bauer, Nico, 2015. "Assessment of transformation strategies for the German power sector under the uncertainty of demand development and technology availability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 143-156.
    14. Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Oei, Pao-Yu & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix, 2022. "Chances and barriers for Germany's low carbon transition - Quantifying uncertainties in key influential factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).

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