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Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics?

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  • Gill A. Pratt

Abstract

About half a billion years ago, life on earth experienced a short period of very rapid diversification called the "Cambrian Explosion." Many theories have been proposed for the cause of the Cambrian Explosion, one of the most provocative being the evolution of vision, allowing animals to dramatically increase their ability to hunt and find mates. Today, technological developments on several fronts are fomenting a similar explosion in the diversification and applicability of robotics. Many of the base hardware technologies on which robots depend—particularly computing, data storage, and communications—have been improving at exponential growth rates. Two newly blossoming technologies—"Cloud Robotics" and "Deep Learning"—could leverage these base technologies in a virtuous cycle of explosive growth. I examine some key technologies contributing to the present excitement in the robotics field. As with other technological developments, there has been a significant uptick in concerns about the societal implication of robotics and artificial intelligence. Thus, I offer some thoughts about how robotics may affect the economy and some ways to address potential difficulties.

Suggested Citation

  • Gill A. Pratt, 2015. "Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 51-60, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:29:y:2015:i:3:p:51-60
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.29.3.51
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghimire, Ramesh & Skinner, Jim & Carnathan, Mike, 2020. "Who perceived automation as a threat to their jobs in metro Atlanta: Results from the 2019 Metro Atlanta Speaks survey," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Bennett, Roger & Vijaygopal, Rohini, 2024. "Exploring mobility and transportation technology futures for people with ambulatory disabilities: A science fiction prototype," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Lange, Steffen & Pütz, Peter & Kopp, Thomas, 2018. "Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 123-133.
    4. Podobnik, Boris & Dabić, Marina & Wild, Dorian & Di Matteo, Tiziana, 2023. "The impact of STEM on the growth of wealth at varying scales, ranging from individuals to firms and countries: The performance of STEM firms during the pandemic across different markets," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    6. Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Klenert, David & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2021. "Not so disruptive yet? Characteristics, distribution and determinants of robots in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 76-89.
    7. Ballestar, María Teresa & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Sainz, Jorge & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2020. "Knowledge, robots and productivity in SMEs: Explaining the second digital wave," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 119-131.
    8. Nomaler, Onder & Verspagen, Bart, 2018. "Perpetual growth, distribution, and robots," MERIT Working Papers 2018-023, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Grimm, Felix & Gathmann, Christina, 2022. "The Diffusion of Digital Technologies and its Consequences in the Labor Market," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264087, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Aristotelis Boukouras, 2016. "Capitalist Spirit and the Markets: Why Income Inequality Matters," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    11. HAMAGUCHI Nobuaki & KONDO Keisuke, 2018. "Regional Employment and Artificial Intelligence in Japan," Discussion papers 18032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Lu, Chia-Hui, 2021. "The impact of artificial intelligence on economic growth and welfare," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2017. "Revisiting the risk of automation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 157-160.
    14. Camiña, Ester & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2020. "Automation technologies: Long-term effects for Spanish industrial firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Caro-Burnett, Johann & Kaneko, Shinji, 2022. "Is Society Ready for AI Ethical Decision Making? Lessons from a Study on Autonomous Cars," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Ballestar, María Teresa & García-Lazaro, Aida & Sainz, Jorge & Sanz, Ismael, 2022. "Why is your company not robotic? The technology and human capital needed by firms to become robotic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 328-343.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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