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The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Real Economic Activity: An Evolving Relationship

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  • Burcu Erik
  • Marco J. Lombardi
  • Dubravko Mihaljek
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

The interest in how financial conditions affect real economic activity has grown since the great financial crisis (GFC), not least because some of the mechanisms at play in the financial sector may have changed. We shed light on this issue by examining the empirical relationship between global Purchasing Managers' Indices, world trade, and indicators of global financial conditions, with a special focus on the broad dollar index. We show that the influence of the dollar on real economic activity and global trade seems to have increased since the GFC, while that of the VIX has decreased.

Suggested Citation

  • Burcu Erik & Marco J. Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Real Economic Activity: An Evolving Relationship," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 529-534, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:529-34
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201097
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valentina Bruno & Se-Jik Kim & Hyun Shin, 2018. "Exchange Rates and the Working Capital Channel of Trade Fluctuations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 531-536, May.
    2. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2012. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 1-14.
    3. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song, 2023. "Dollar and Exports," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(8), pages 2963-2996.
    4. Samer Shousha, 2019. "The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System," International Finance Discussion Papers 1258, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "The Global Financial Cycle after Lehman," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 523-528, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Boris Hofmann & Taejin Park, 2020. "The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    5. Robert N. McCauley, 2020. "The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 421-429, December.
    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tsvetelina Nenova & Helene Rey, 2020. "Global Footprints of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2004, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Nariman, Farhad & Heshmati, Almas, 2022. "Are Entrepreneurs Aware of Covered Interest Parity and Dollar Shortage?," IZA Discussion Papers 15216, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Goswami, Mangal & Pontines, Victor & Mohammed, Yassier, 2023. "Portfolio capital flows and the US dollar exchange rate: Viewed from the lens of time and frequency dynamics of connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Stefan Avdjiev & Egemen Eren & Patrick McGuire, 2020. "Dollar funding costs during the Covid-19 crisis through the lens of the FX swap market," BIS Bulletins 1, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," NBER Working Papers 27927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Cham, Yaya, 2023. "Financial Globalization and Bank Lending: The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy in The Gambia," MPRA Paper 117026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bampi, Rodrigo E. & Colombo, Jefferson A., 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of foreign exchange appreciation on industrial output: Evidence from disaggregated manufacturing data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 431-451.
    14. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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