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National and Global Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops

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  • Casper Worm Hansen
  • Asger Mose Wingender

Abstract

We estimate the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on countrywide yields, harvested area, and trade using a triple-differences rollout design that exploits variation in the availability of GM seeds across crops, countries, and time. We find positive impacts on yields, especially in poor countries. Our estimates imply that without GM crops, the world would have needed 3.4 percent additional cropland to keep global agricultural output at its 2019 level. We also find that bans on GM cultivation have limited the global gain from GM adoption to one-third of its potential. Poor countries would benefit most from lifting such bans.

Suggested Citation

  • Casper Worm Hansen & Asger Mose Wingender, 2023. "National and Global Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 224-240, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:224-40
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shahzad Kouser & Matin Qaim, 2013. "Valuing financial, health, and environmental benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 323-335, May.
    2. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    3. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    4. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    5. Qiao, Fangbin, 2015. "Fifteen Years of Bt Cotton in China: The Economic Impact and its Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 177-185.
    6. Scheitrum, Daniel & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Nes, Kjersti, 2020. "Realized and potential global production effects from genetic engineering," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
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    2. David Zilberman & Justus Wesseler, 2023. "Building the Bioeconomy through Innovation, Monitoring and Science‐based Policies," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 22(3), pages 21-25, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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