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Did the Paycheck Protection Program Help Small Businesses? Evidence from Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

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  • Sumit Agarwal
  • Brent W. Ambrose
  • Luis A. Lopez
  • Xue Xiao

Abstract

In this study, we examine the broader economic effects of the US federal government's Paycheck Protection Program by focusing on the performance of securitized commercial mortgages. We provide novel evidence for spillover effects of government interventions in the face of economic crises. We find that the PPP reduced mortgage delinquencies by approximately $36 billion in 2020. The strongest effects occur when PPP funds targeted businesses in areas most affected by COVID-19, where banks overperformed in providing PPP loans, and among mortgages on properties in retail and lodging. Thus, PPP relief to small businesses eased economic distress beyond the labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose & Luis A. Lopez & Xue Xiao, 2024. "Did the Paycheck Protection Program Help Small Businesses? Evidence from Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 95-132, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:95-132
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arpit Gupta, 2019. "Foreclosure Contagion and the Neighborhood Spillover Effects of Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2249-2301, October.
    2. David Glancy & Robert Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein & Joseph Nichols, 2023. "Recourse as shadow equity: Evidence from commercial real estate loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1108-1136, September.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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