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Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation

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  • Dan Levin
  • James Peck
  • Asen Ivanov

Abstract

Through a series of decision tasks involving colored cards, we provide separate measures of Bayesian updating and non-probabilistic reasoning skills. We apply these measures to (and are the first to study) a common-value Dutch auction. This format is more salient than the strategically equivalent first-price auction and silent Dutch formats in hinting that one should condition one's estimate of the value on having the highest bid. Both Bayesian updating skills and non-probabilistic reasoning skills are shown to help subjects correct for the winner's curse, as does the saliency of the active-clock Dutch format. (JEL D12, D44, D83)

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Levin & James Peck & Asen Ivanov, 2016. "Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 39-60, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:39-60
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.20140008
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Sven & Guth, Werner & Kaplan, Todd & Zultan, Roi, 2014. "Auctions and Leaks: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation," MPRA Paper 58940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alejandro Martínez-Marquina & Muriel Niederle & Emanuel Vespa, 2017. "Probabilistic States versus Multiple Certainties: The Obstacle of Uncertainty in Contingent Reasoning," NBER Working Papers 24030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory#," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt32j4d5z2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    4. Koch, Christian & Penczynski, Stefan P., 2018. "The winner's curse: Conditional reasoning and belief formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 57-102.
    5. Ivanova-Stenzel, Radosveta & Seres, Gyula, 2021. "Are strategies anchored?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Moser, Johannes, 2017. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner's curse: An experimental investigation," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 36304, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Sven Fischer & Werner Güth & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro'i Zultan, 2021. "Auctions With Leaks About Early Bids: Analysis And Experimental Behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(2), pages 722-739, April.
    8. Evan M. Calford & Timothy N. Cason, 2024. "Contingent Reasoning and Dynamic Public Goods Provision," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 236-266, May.
    9. Fischer, Sven & Guth, Werner & Kaplan, Todd & Zultan, Roi, 2014. "Auctions and Leaks: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation," MPRA Paper 58940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Moser, Johannes, 2018. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner's curse: An experimental investigation," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181506, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Pidduck, Robert J. & Townsend, David M. & Busenitz, Lowell W., 2024. "Non-probabilistic reasoning in navigating entrepreneurial uncertainty: A psychology of religious faith lens," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4).
    12. Johannes Moser, 2019. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner’s curse: an experimental investigation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 17-56, July.
    13. Onur Sapci, 2021. "The impact of environmental economics class on college students` future temperature expectations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1887-1897.
    14. Alex Rees-Jones & Ran Shorrer & Chloe J. Tergiman, 2020. "Correlation Neglect in Student-to-School Matching," NBER Working Papers 26734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Johannes Moser, 2017. "Hypothetical thinking and the winner's curse: An experimental investigation," Working Papers 176, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    16. Sotiris Georganas & Dan Levin & Peter McGee, 2017. "Optimistic irrationality and overbidding in private value auctions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(4), pages 772-792, December.
    17. Olivier Bochet & Jacopo Magnani, 2021. "Limited Strategic Thinking and the Cursed Match," Working Papers 20210071, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Sep 2021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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