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Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

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  • Kyle Handley
  • Fariha Kamal
  • Ryan Monarch

Abstract

We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2025. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 208-238, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:208-38
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20210051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan Helper & Abdul Munasib, 2022. "Economies of scope and relational contracts: Exploring global value chains in the automotive industry," BEA Working Papers 0195, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Feenstra, Robert C. & Jensen, J. Bradford, 2012. "Evaluating estimates of materials offshoring from US manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 170-173.
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    Cited by:

    1. Toshiyuki Matsuura, 2025. "Navigating Trade Shocks: The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Japanese Exporters and MNEs," Working Papers e213, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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