IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejapp/v17y2025i1p208-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley
  • Fariha Kamal
  • Ryan Monarch

Abstract

We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2025. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 208-238, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:208-38
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20210051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20210051
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20210051.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20210051.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/app.20210051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susan Helper & Abdul Munasib, 2022. "Economies of scope and relational contracts: Exploring global value chains in the automotive industry," BEA Working Papers 0195, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Feenstra, Robert C. & Jensen, J. Bradford, 2012. "Evaluating estimates of materials offshoring from US manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 170-173.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Schulte & Arthur Jakobs & Stefan Pauliuk, 2021. "Relaxing the import proportionality assumption in multi-regional input–output modelling," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Campbell, Douglas L. & Lusher, Lester, 2019. "The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-28.
    3. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2014. "Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures," Working Paper Series 1739, European Central Bank.
    4. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2015. "How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 19-32.
    5. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2015. "Integrated sectors - diversified earnings: the (missing) impact of offshoring on wages and wage convergence in the EU27," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(3), pages 325-350, September.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2015. "Offshoring and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 84-122, July.
    7. Francois de Soyres, 2016. "Trade and Interdependence in International Networks," 2016 Meeting Papers 157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Global value chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices," Working Papers hal-03374355, HAL.
    9. Handley, Kyle & Kamal, Fariha & Monarch, Ryan, 2024. "Supply chain adjustments to tariff shocks: Evidence from firm trade linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    10. Tristan Auvray & Joel Rabinovich, 2019. "The financialisation–offshoring nexus and the capital accumulation of US non-financial firms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(5), pages 1183-1218.
    11. Pol Antràs & Teresa C. Fort & Felix Tintelnot, 2017. "The Margins of Global Sourcing: Theory and Evidence from US Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2514-2564, September.
    12. Seema Sangita, 2013. "The Effect of Diasporic Business Networks on International Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 266-280, May.
    13. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "How Global Are Global Value Chains? A New Approach To Measure International Fragmentation," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 66-92, January.
    14. Giunta, A. & Montalbano, P. & Nenci, S., 2022. "Consistency of micro- and macro-level data on global value chains: Evidence from selected European countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 130-142.
    15. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dyballa, Katharina & Kraft, Kornelius, 2018. "Foreign Competition and Executive Compensation in the Manufacturing Industry: A Comparison between Germany and the U.S," IZA Discussion Papers 11713, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Chen, Quanrun & Chen, Xikang & Pei, Jiansuo & Yang, Cuihong & Zhu, Kunfu, 2020. "Estimating domestic content in China’s exports: Accounting for a dual-trade regime," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-54.
    18. Robert C. Johnson, 2018. "Measuring Global Value Chains," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 207-236, August.
    19. Thiemo Fetzer & Peter John Lambert & Bennet Feld & Prashant Garg, 2024. "AI-Generated Production Networks: Measurement and Applications to Global Trade," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 346, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    20. Cédric Durand & Sébastien Miroudot, 2015. "Is labour the fall guy of a financial-led globalisation? A cross-country inquiry on globalisation, financialisation and employment at the industry level," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(3), pages 409-432, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:208-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.