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Do Job-to-Job Transitions Drive Wage Fluctuations over the Business Cycle?

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Karahan
  • Ryan Michaels
  • Benjamin Pugsley
  • Ayşegül Şahin
  • Rachel Schuh

Abstract

We investigate the importance of job-to-job (JJ) transitions for cyclical wage dynamics. By exploiting cross-state variation, we find that wage growth is tightly linked to variation in the JJ transition probability, and conditional on this, the job finding probability of the unemployed has no explanatory power. We investigate the robustness of our results to several caveats and find the result to hold. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for competing theories of wage dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Karahan & Ryan Michaels & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin & Rachel Schuh, 2017. "Do Job-to-Job Transitions Drive Wage Fluctuations over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 353-357, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:5:p:353-57
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171076
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. R. Jason Faberman & Andreas I. Mueller & Ayşegül Şahin & Giorgio Topa, 2022. "Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non‐Employed," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1743-1779, July.
    2. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    3. Boyd, Laura & Byrne, Stephen & Keenen, Enda & McIndoe Calder, Tara, 2022. "Labour market recovery after a pandemic," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-129, July.
    4. Christopher Ball & Nicolas Groshenny & Oezer Karagedikli & Murat Oezbilgin & Finn Robinson, 2020. "Low wage growth and job-to-job transitions: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202021, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Hahn, Joyce K. & Hyatt, Henry R. & Janicki, Hubert P., 2021. "Job ladders and growth in earnings, hours, and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Henry R. Hyatt & Tucker S. McElroy, 2017. "Labor Reallocation, Employment, and Earnings: Vector Autoregression Evidence," Working Papers 17-11r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Bauer, Anja & Lochner, Benjamin, 2020. "History dependence in wages and cyclical selection: Evidence from Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Christopher Ball & Nicolas Groshenny & Ozer Karagedikli & Murat Özbilgin & Finn Robinson, 2024. "How Wages Respond to the Job-Finding and Job-to-Job Transition Rates: Evidence from New Zealand Administrative Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 159-180, February.
    9. Mussida Chiara & Zanin Luca, 2019. "Voluntary Mobility of Employees for Better Job Opportunities Given a Temporary Contract: Insights Regarding an Age-Varying Association Between the Two Events," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-27, April.
    10. Cockx, Bart & Desiere, Sam, 2024. "Labour costs and the decision to hire the first employee," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, 2019. "Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-3, Bank of Canada.
    12. Raquel Carrasco & J Ignacio García-Pérez & Juan F Jimeno, 2024. "Worker flows and wage dynamics: estimating wage growth without composition effects," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 94-114.
    13. Clémence Berson & Marta de Philippis & Eliana Viviano, 2020. "Job-to-Job Flows and Wage Dynamics in France and Italy," Working papers 756, Banque de France.
    14. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    15. Chiara Mussida & Luca Zanin, 2020. "I found a better job opportunity! Voluntary job mobility of employees and temporary contracts before and after the great recession in France, Italy and Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 47-98, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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