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Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth

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  • Gregory Clark

Abstract

This comment assesses the claim of The Rise and Fall of American Growth that for coming decades, growth in US TFP will continue the disappointing pace of the last decade. While predicting future technological advance is difficult, there are indications that Gordon may actually be too optimistic on future TFP growth. The share of output from manufacturing, which still generates the majority of R&D expenditures, and has historically more rapid TFP growth, will continue to fall. There are substantial obstacles to rapid TFP advance in much of the rest of the economy: construction, transport, health care and other services.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Clark, 2016. "Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 68-71, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:68-71
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161072
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Walter Buhr, 2018. "Institutional Economics: A Sketch of Economic Growth Policy," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 183-18, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
    2. Boris Begović, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War by Robert J. Gordon," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(5), pages 627-636, December.
    3. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Russell Barnett & Rhys R. Mendes, 2017. "A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment," Staff Analytical Notes 17-7, Bank of Canada.
    5. Julius Probst, 2019. "Lawrence Summers Deserves a Nobel Prize for Reviving the Theory of Secular Stagnation," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 16(2), pages 342–373-3, September.
    6. Uwe Cantner & Holger Graf & Ekaterina Prytkova & Simone Vannuccini, 2018. "The Compositional Nature of Productivity and Innovation Slowdown," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-006, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    7. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 72-76, May.
    9. Paqué Karl-Heinz, 2016. "Der Wandel des Wachstums: Anmerkungen zur Dynamik von Wohlstand, Technologie und Verteilung aus Anlass von Robert J. Gordons Buch „The Rise and Fall of American Growth“," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 289-308, September.
    10. Gilles Dufrenot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," AMSE Working Papers 1818, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N71 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N72 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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