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Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality and Correlated Medical Costs

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  • Felix Reichling
  • Kent Smetters

Abstract

The conventional wisdom since Yaari (1965) is that households without a bequest motive should fully annuitize their investments. Numerous frictions do not break this sharp result. We modify the Yaari framework by allowing a household's mortality risk itself to be stochastic due to health shocks. A lifetime annuity still helps to hedge longevity risk. But the annuity's remaining present value is correlated with medical costs, such as those for nursing home care, thereby reducing annuity demand, even without ad-hoc liquidity constraints. We find that most households should not hold a positive level of annuities, and many should hold negative amounts. (JEL D14, D82, G23, I12, J14, J26)

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Reichling & Kent Smetters, 2015. "Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality and Correlated Medical Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3273-3320, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:11:p:3273-3320
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20131584
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amy Finkelstein & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "What Good Is Wealth Without Health? The Effect Of Health On The Marginal Utility Of Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 221-258, January.
    2. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "Introduction to The Economic Theory of Annuities," Introductory Chapters, in: The Economic Theory of Annuities, Princeton University Press.
    3. Felix Reichling & Kent Smetters, 2013. "Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities: Working Paper 2013-05," Working Papers 44374, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "The Economic Theory of Annuities," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8536.
    5. Felix Reichling & Kent Smetters, 2013. "Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 19211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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