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Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Soren T. Anderson
  • Ryan Kellogg
  • James M. Sallee
  • Richard T. Curtin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

Suggested Citation

  • Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & James M. Sallee & Richard T. Curtin, 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 110-114, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:110-14
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.3.110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Soren T. & Kellogg, Ryan & Sallee, James M., 2013. "What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-403.
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