IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/adx/journl/v4y2022i1p81-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Inflation Nexus in Nigeria: The Case of Recent Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Ismaila Akanni Yusuf
  • Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen
  • Isaac Azubuike Ogbuji

Abstract

The erratic performance of the Nigerian economy has generated theoretical and empirical debate in the literature. For instance, while some scholars have posited that inflation and currency depreciation positively influence a country’s economy, others believe the contrary. This leads to the interaction of both the exchange and inflation rates to arrive at an innovative conclusion. Hence, this study examines the effects of both indicators and their interactive effect of the country’s performance in the regulation era between 1986 to 2019, using the autoregressive distributed lag estimation technique. The empirical findings reveal that the interaction of inflation and exchange rate has a negative impact on the economy in the short run, but it is positive in the long run. Thus, the monetary authority should proactively control the foreign exchange rate movement to curtail the recent surge in inflation and boost the performance of the country’s economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismaila Akanni Yusuf & Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen & Isaac Azubuike Ogbuji, 2022. "Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Inflation Nexus in Nigeria: The Case of Recent Recession," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 81-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:adx:journl:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:81-87
    DOI: 10.52223/jei4012209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.52223/jei4012209
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.52223/jei4012209?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu (Sandu) & Bogdan-Narcis Firtescu, 2018. "Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-11, April.
    2. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Isaac A. Ogbuji & Yasiru O. Alimi & Anthonia T. Odeleye, 2019. "Growth Effects of Financial Market Instruments: The Ghanaian Experience," Working Papers 19/095, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    3. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Mustapha O. Bello, 2018. "Core infrastructure and industrial performance in Africa: Do institutions matter?," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 65(4), pages 539-562, December.
    4. F. V. Vieira & M. Holland & C. Gomes da Silva & L. C. Bottecchia, 2013. "Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3733-3741, September.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Mesagan, Ekundayo & Adenuga , Juliet, 2020. "Effects of Oil Resource Endowment, Natural Gas and Agriculture Output: Policy Options for Inclusive Growth," BizEcons Quarterly, Strides Educational Foundation, vol. 8, pages 15-34.
    7. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    8. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Imadeddin Ahmed Almosabbeh & Mohamad Abulkarem Almoree, 2018. "The relationship between manufacturing production and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(4), pages 674-690, September.
    10. ANYANWU, Felicia Akujinma & ANANWUDE, Amalachukwu Chijindu & OKOYE, Ngozi Theodora, 2017. "Exchange Rate Policy and Nigeria's Economic Growth: A Granger Causality Impact Assessment," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    12. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    13. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Eregha, Perekunah Bright, 2018. "Political Economy of Oil Resources Management in Nigeria: Lessons from Other Countries," MPRA Paper 95667, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2019.
    14. CHARLES Ayobola & MESAGAN Ekundayo & SAIBU Muibi, 2018. "Resource Endowment And Export Diversification: Implications For Growth In Nigeria," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(1), pages 29-40, December.
    15. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 599-620, October.
    16. MESAGAN Ekundayo & OLUNKWA Ndubuisi & YUSUF Ismaila, 2018. "Financial Development And Manufacturing Performance: The Nigerian Case," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(1), pages 97-111, December.
    17. Ahmad, Arslan & Ahmad, Najid & Ali, Sharafat, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Pakistan (1975-2011)," MPRA Paper 49395, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2013.
    18. Sunusi Yahaya Enejoh & Ahmad Muhammad Tsauni, 2017. "An Analytical Study of the Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1970-2016)," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(4), pages 110-120, October.
    19. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Debt on Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 471-484, September.
    20. Mesagan Peter Ekundayo & Amadi Nkem Agatha, 2017. "The Efficiency Market Theory: A Case of Commercial Banks Stocks in Nigeria," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 583-587, December.
    21. repec:oap:ijaefa:2017:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. W.A. Isola & E.P. Mesagan, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Small and Medium Enterprises’ Performance in Selected West African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(69), pages 14-23, September.
    23. Harris Maduku & Irrshad Kaseeram, 2018. "Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy and Unemployment in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 88-96.
    24. Olunkwa, Chidi N. & Adenuga, Juliet I. & Salaudeen, Mohammed Bashir & Mesagan, Ekundayo P., 2021. "The Demographic Effects of Covid-19: Any Hope for Working Populations?," BizEcons Quarterly, Strides Educational Foundation, vol. 15(1), pages 3-12.
    25. Ekundayo Peter Mesagan & Kolawole Kushimo & Dominic Ikoh Umar, 2021. "Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(11), pages 1-23, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yusuf, Ismaila Akanni & Salaudeen, Mohammed Bashir & Agbonrofo, Hope, 2021. "Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 111086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ismaila Akanni Yusuf & Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen & Hope Agbonrofo, 2021. "Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 3(3), pages 137-143.
    3. Yusuf, Ismaila Akanni & Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Amadi, Agatha Nkem, 2020. "Effect of financial deepening on stock market returns: The case of military and democratic post-SAP regimes in Nigeria," BizEcons Quarterly, Strides Educational Foundation, vol. 6, pages 3-21.
    4. Chirwa, Themba G. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2016. "What Drives Long-Run Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from South Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 429-456.
    5. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Sources of Economic Growth in Zambia: An Empirical Investigation," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 275-290, April.
    6. Isaac Azubuike Ogbuji & Ekundayo Peter Mesagan & Yasiru Olorunfemi Alimi, 2020. "The Dynamic Linkage between Money Market, Capital Market and Economic Growth in Ghana: New Lessons Relearned," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 59-78, December.
    7. Mohammed Abubakar, 2024. "Globalisation and Output Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Critical Role of Trade Liberalisation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 2218-2240, March.
    8. Ekundayo Peter Mesagan & Xuan Vinh Vo & Precious Muhammed Emmanuel, 2023. "The technological role in the growth-enhancing financial development: evidence from African nations," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 657-680, February.
    9. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    10. Mesagan, Ekundayo & Adenuga , Juliet, 2020. "Effects of Oil Resource Endowment, Natural Gas and Agriculture Output: Policy Options for Inclusive Growth," BizEcons Quarterly, Strides Educational Foundation, vol. 8, pages 15-34.
    11. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Charles, Ayobola Olufolake & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "The relevance of resource wealth in output growth and industrial development in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 131-152, July.
    13. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," Working Papers hal-04141804, HAL.
    14. Ismaila Akanni Yusuf & Agatha Nkem Amadi & Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen, 2020. "Effects of Risk Culture and Appetite on Effective Risk Management in Nigerian Banks: Case Study of United Bank for Africa Plc," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(2), pages 81-87, June.
    15. Themba G Chirwa & NM Odhiambo, 2019. "An Empirical Test Of Exogenous Growth Models: Evidence From Three Southern African Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 7-38, January –.
    16. Muhammad Umair & Waqar Ahmad & Babar Hussain & Valentin Marian Antohi & Costinela Fortea & Monica Laura Zlati, 2024. "The Role of Labor Force, Physical Capital, and Energy Consumption in Shaping Agricultural and Industrial Output in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-26, August.
    17. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    18. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.
    19. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adx:journl:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:81-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iqbal Javed (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.scienceimpactpub.com/journals/index.php .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.