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State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter For Recent U.S. Inflation?

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Author Info
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Peter J. Klenow

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Abstract

Inflation equals the product of two terms: the fraction of items with price changes (whose volatility figures prominently in state-dependent pricing models), and the average size of those price changes (the only source of fluctuations in time-dependent pricing models). The variance of inflation over time can be decomposed into contributions from the variance of each term and from their covariance. We use micro data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate this decomposition for consumer price inflation from February 1988 through April 2003. We find that 90% of the variance of monthly inflation stems solely from fluctuations in the average size of price changes. When we calibrate a prominent statedependent pricing model to match the empirical variance decomposition, we find that the model"s shock responses are very close to those in a standard time-dependent pricing model. We conclude that, at least for recent U.S. inflation, a realistic state-dependent pricing model has aggregate implications quite similar to time-dependent pricing models.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 277.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:277

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Keywords: state-dependend; time-dependent; inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Benjamin Eden, 2005. "Rigid prices: evidence from U.S. scanner data," Working Paper Series WP-05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
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  4. Judith A. Chevalier & Anil K Kashyap & Peter E. Rossi, 2003. "Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Scanner Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 15-37, March. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1985. "Staggered Contracts and the Frequency of Price Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 935-59, Supp.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1991. "State-Dependent Pricing and the Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 683-708, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 2004. "Evaluating the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 10617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Caplin, Andrew S & Spulber, Daniel F, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-25, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas, 2003. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 10187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Davis, Michael C & Hamilton, James D, 2004. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-37, February.
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  12. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing And The General Equilibrium Dynamics Of Money And Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Burstein, Ariel T., 2006. "Inflation and output dynamics with state-dependent pricing decisions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1235-1257, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2002. "Customer Anger at Price Increases, Time Variation in the Frequency of Price Changes and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1997. "Aggregation and Optimization with State-Dependent Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 601-626, May.
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  16. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1987. "Indexation and Incomes Policy: A Study of Wage Adjustment in Unionized Manufacturing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 391-412, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1993. "Heterogeneity and Output Fluctuations in a Dynamic Menu-Cost Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(1), pages 95-119, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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