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Growth Collapses

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Author Info
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard U)
Rodriguez, Francisco (Wesleyan U)
Wagner, Rodrigo (Harvard U)

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Abstract

We study episodes where economic growth decelerates to negative rates. While the majority of these episodes are of short duration, a substantial fraction last for a longer period of time than can be explained as the result of business-cycle dynamics. The duration, depth and associated output loss of these episodes differs dramatically across regions. We investigate the factors associated with the entry of countries into these episodes as well as their duration. We find that while countries fall into crises for multiple reasons, including wars, export collapses, sudden stops and political transitions, most of these variables do not help predict the duration of crises episodes. In contrast, we find that a measure of the density of a country’s export product space is significantly associated with lower crisis duration. We also find that unconditional and conditional hazard rates are decreasing in time, a fact that is consistent with either strong shocks to fundamentals or with models of poverty traps. [Jointly published as Center for International Development Working Paper No. 136 and KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP06-046.]

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp06-046.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp06-046

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  6. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2005. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries, 1960-2001," Development and Comp Systems 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Working Papers 2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 683-702, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Terence C. Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: an international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Crises in Emerging Market Economies: A Global Perspective," NBER Working Papers 11305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "What You Export Matters," NBER Working Papers 11905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," RES Working Papers 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Francisco Rodríguez, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis," Publications 4, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Eduardo Zegarra & Javier Escobal & Ursula Aldana, 2008. "Titling, Credit Constraints and Rental Markets in Rural Peru: Exploring Channels and Conditioned Impacts," RES Working Papers 2012, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2009. "Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction," RES Working Papers 4610, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jonathan David Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 2007. "What Makes Growth Sustained?," IMF Working Papers 08/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2008. "Growth Diagnostics in Peru," Working Paper Series rwp08-62, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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