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Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects

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Author Info
Guillermo A. Calvo
Alejandro Izquierdo
Rudy Loo-Kung

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Abstract

Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance-sheet effects as key determinants of relative-price volatility, where balance-sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate (linked to the degree of external leverage of the absorption of tradable goods) and a measure of domestic liability dollarization.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11492.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11492

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Sergio Rebelo & Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," 2004 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Honohan, Patrick & Shi, Anging, 2001. "Deposit dollarization and the financial sector in emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2748, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Financial Markets in Times of Stress," NBER Working Papers 8569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  3. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2007. "Fear of Appreciation," Working Paper Series rwp07-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The economic and fiscal consequences of financial crises," MPRA Paper 13025, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Ugo Panizza & Arturo Galindo, 2006. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," RES Working Papers 4486, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1998. "Some lessons for policy makers who deal with the mixed blessing of capital inflows," MPRA Paper 7123, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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