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On the duration of civil war

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Author Info
Collier, Paul
Hoeffler, Anke
Soderbom, Mans

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Abstract

The authors model the duration of large-scale, violent civil conflicts, applying hazard functions to a comprehensive data set on such conflicts for the period 1960-99. They find that the duration of conflicts is determined by a substantially different set of variables than those that determine their initiation. The duration of conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affects the initiation of conflict. The authors also find that neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that rebellions are initiated where they are viable during conflict, regardless of the prospects of attaining post-conflict goals, and that they persist unless circumstances change.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2681.

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Date of creation: 30 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2681

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Related research
Keywords: Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Peace&Peacekeeping; Post Conflict Reconstruction; Services&Transfers to Poor; Education and Society; Social Conflict and Violence; Peace&Peacekeeping; Post Conflict Reconstruction; Rural Poverty Reduction; Services&Transfers to Poor;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
  3. Grossman, Herschel I, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 912-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tangerås, Thomas P. & Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter, 2002. "Ethnic Diversity and Civil War," Working Paper Series 589, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Collier, 2004. "Ressources naturelles, développement et conflits : liens de causalité et mesures politiques," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 18(3), pages 197-215. [Downloadable!]
  3. Janvier Nkurunziza, 2004. "How Long Can Inflation Tax Compensate For The Loss Of Government Revenue In War Economies? Evidence From Burundi," Development and Comp Systems 0409065, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Shenoy, Ajay, 2008. "The Devil's Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War," MPRA Paper 8895, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ayla Ogus & Sacit Hadi Akdede, 2008. "Death as a measure of duration of conflict," Working Papers 0804, Izmir University of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Syed Mansoob Murshed & Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin, 2009. "Revisiting the greed and grievance explanations for violent internal conflict," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 87-111. [Downloadable!]
  7. Besley, Timothy J. & Persson, Torsten, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jan Willem Gunning, 2005. "Pourquoi donner de l'aide ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 19(2), pages 7-50. [Downloadable!]
  9. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Foreign aid and fiscal policy," Development Working Papers 212, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martha Starr, 2006. "Growth and conflict in the developing world: Neo-liberal narratives and social-economy alternatives," Review of Social Economy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 64(2), pages 205-224, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2009. "Persistence of civil wars," P.O.L.I.S. department's Working Papers 130, Department of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Norman Offstein, 2007. "An extortionary guerrilla movement," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 995-1011. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sanna Nurmikko, 2008. "Survival of Political Leadership," Economics Discussion Papers 652, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. repec:bep:eaptop:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:1706-1706 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Hitzhusen, Fred & Jeanty, Pierre Wilner, 2006. "Analyzing the Effects of Conflicts on Food Security in Developing Countries: An Instrumental Variable Panel Data Approach," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21483, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  17. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil Wars And Economic Growth: A Regional Comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fafchamps, Marcel & Minten, Bart, 2006. "Insecurity and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Faini, Riccardo, 2006. "Foreign Aid and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana D. Kugler, 2007. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 2790, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Anand, P.B., 2005. "Getting Infrastructure Priorities Right in Post-Conflict Reconstruction," Working Papers RP2005/42, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  24. Wick, Katharina, 2007. "Conflict and Production: An Application to Natural Resources," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 34, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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