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Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery

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Author Info
Valerie Cerra
Sweta Chaman Saxena

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Abstract

Using panel data for a large set of high-income, emerging market, developing, and transition countries, we find robust evidence that the large output loss from financial crises and some types of political crises is highly persistent. The results on financial crises are also highly robust to the assumption on exogeneity. Moreover, we find strong evidence of growth over optimism before financial crises. We also find a distinction between the output impact of civil wars versus other crises, in that there is a partial output rebound for civil wars but no significant rebound for financial crises or the other political crises. (JEL D72, D74, E32, E44, O17, O47)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/aer.98.1.439
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 439-57
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:1:p:439-57

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aghion, P. & Saint-Paul, G., 1991. "On The Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," DELTA Working Papers 91-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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  2. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2003. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 03/48, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Mark V. Siegler, 2005. "International growth and volatility in historical perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 67-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2005. "The Cost of Recessions Revisited: A Reverse-Liquidationist View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(2), pages 313-341, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  15. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert Boyer, 2006. "Employment and decent work in the era of flexicurity," PSE Working Papers 2006-21, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," RES Working Papers 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Panel Regression Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," RES Working Papers 1083, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Bonanza y crisis en América Latina: El papel de los factores externos," RES Working Papers 4570, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Francisco Rodríguez, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2008-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," NBER Working Papers 12788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Norbert Funke & Patrick A. Imam & Eleonara Granziera, 2008. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 08/36, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," IMF Working Papers 05/29, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Mark Weisbrot & Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2006. "The Scorecard on Development: 25 Years of Diminished Progress," Working Papers 32, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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