IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v98y2012i2p178-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira
  • de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José

Abstract

Since the 1990s inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy. It is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility. This article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the Propensity Score Matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. For analysis, the sample is split into two sets of countries (advanced and developing). The findings suggest that the adoption of IT is an ideal monetary regime for developing economies and, in addition to reducing inflation volatility, can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels. Regarding advanced economies, the adoption of IT does not appear to represent an advantageous strategy. In brief, the empirical results indicate that the adoption of IT is useful for countries that must enhance their credibility for the management of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:98:y:2012:i:2:p:178-191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438781100068X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    4. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada.
    5. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    9. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May.
    11. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Verónica Cohen Sabbán & Martín Gonzalez Rozada & Andrew Powell, 2003. "A New Test for the Success of Inflation Targeting," Business School Working Papers inflationtargeting, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    13. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    14. Reinhart, Carmen & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "The Realities of Modern Hyperinflation," MPRA Paper 7578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    16. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 117-144.
    17. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    18. Erasmus K. Kersting & Mark A. Wynne, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    19. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    20. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & José Simão Filho, 2007. "Economic transparency and effectiveness of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 497-514, November.
    21. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D. With contributions by-Name:Adamowicz,Wiktor, 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Yifan Hu, 2006. "The choice of inflation targeting—an empirical investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 27-42, April.
    24. Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2002. "Capital account liberalization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 221-225, October.
    25. Helder de Mendonca, 2007. "Towards credibility from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2599-2615.
    26. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    27. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    28. Michael Dotsey, 2006. "A review of inflation targeting in developed countries," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 10-20.
    29. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 369-397, May.
    30. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    31. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    32. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    33. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    34. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2004. "The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance," Economics wp23_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    35. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2009. "Inflation targeting credibility and reputation: The consequences for the interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1228-1238, November.
    36. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    37. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2007(Winter), pages 17-27.
    38. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    39. Shang-Jin Wei & Ms. Irina Tytell, 2004. "Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 2004/084, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Thomas Y. Wu, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries," Working Papers Series 83, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    41. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    42. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    43. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346.
    44. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2002. "Central bank structure, policy efficiency, and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 47-60.
    45. Helder Ferreira de Mendonca, 2007. "Empirical evidence from fourteen countries with explicit inflation targeting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 573-576.
    46. Gustavo Leyva, 2008. "The Choice of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 475, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    48. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
    50. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Mr. Mark Zelmer & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/017, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 51-80.
    54. Sascha O. Becker & Andrea Ichino, 2002. "Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(4), pages 358-377, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and income velocity in developing economies: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-61.
    2. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    3. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    5. René TAPSOBA, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Improve Fiscal Discipline? An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 201020, CERDI.
    6. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    7. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    8. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    9. Hanna Samaryna & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Right on Target: Exploring the Determinants of Inflation Targeting Adoption," DNB Working Papers 321, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua, 2019. "Inflation targeting and output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 102-120.
    11. Moretti, Laura, 2014. "Inflation targeting and product market deregulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 372-386.
    12. Renée A. Fry-McKibbin & Chen Wang, 2014. "Does Inflation Targeting Outperform Alternative Policies during Global Downturns?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-64, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    14. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Evaluation: Short-run Costs and Long-run Irrelevance," Working Papers 0920, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    15. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    16. Ardakani, Omid & Kishor, Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2015. "On the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Semiparametric Approach," MPRA Paper 75091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ardakani, Omid M. & Kishor, N. Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2018. "Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 76-97.
    18. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    19. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Short- and Long-Run Differences in the Treatment Effects of Inflation Targeting on Developed and Developing Countries," Working papers 2009-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2010.
    20. Metin Ozdemir & Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "Is price stability enough? Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in developing countries," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 352-372.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Credibility; Propensity score matching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:98:y:2012:i:2:p:178-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.