IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/75091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Semiparametric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ardakani, Omid
  • Kishor, Kundan
  • Song, Suyong

Abstract

This paper estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting for all explicit inflation targeting countries by taking into account the problem of model misspecification and inconsistent estimation of parametric propensity scores by using a semiparametric single index method. In addition, our study uses a broader set of preconditions for inflation targeting and macroeconomic outcome variables than the existing literature. Overall our results suggest no significant difference in level of inflation and inflation volatility in targeters versus non-targeters after the adoption of inflation targeting. Unlike parametric and non-parametric method, we find that inflation targeting leads to a significant decline in the sacrifice ratio and interest rate volatility in developed economies. The results suggest that inflation targeting framework enhances fiscal discipline in both industrial and developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ardakani, Omid & Kishor, Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2015. "On the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Semiparametric Approach," MPRA Paper 75091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75091/1/MPRA_paper_75091.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. van Buuren, Stef & Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Karin, 2011. "mice: Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 45(i03).
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    5. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
    7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    8. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2007. "Central Bank transparency in theory and practice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-789, December.
    9. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    11. Manfred J. M. Neumann & Jurgen Von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 127-148.
    12. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, July.
    13. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
    14. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    15. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    16. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Ricardo D. Brito, 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1679-1688, December.
    18. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    19. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2013. "Does Inflation Targeting Help Reduce Financial Dollarization?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1253-1274, October.
    20. Thomas Y. Wu, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries," Working Papers Series 83, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Zhao, Zhong, 2008. "Sensitivity of propensity score methods to the specifications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 309-319, March.
    22. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," Research Department Publications 4427, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    23. Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
    24. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    25. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    26. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
    27. Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2008. "Has the Adoption of Inflation Targeting Represented a Regime Switch? Empirical evidence from Canada, Sweden and the UK," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-25, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    28. Lucotte, Yannick, 2012. "Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 609-628.
    29. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    30. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    31. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    32. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    33. Brito, Ricardo D., 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Economies’ Output Sacrifice Ratios," Insper Working Papers wpe_212, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    34. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching Monetary Mystique in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-366, July.
    35. Hayfield, Tristen & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i05).
    36. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of ‘Inflation Targeting Lite’ Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(11), pages 1621-1645, November.
    37. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," Research Department Publications 4427, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    38. Shu Lin, 2010. "On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 195-199, February.
    39. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    40. Carlos Eduardo S. Gon«Alves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, February.
    41. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    42. Song, Kyungchul, 2014. "Semiparametric models with single-index nuisance parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 471-483.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ardakani, Omid M. & Kishor, N. Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2018. "Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 76-97.
    2. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    3. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    5. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Working Papers hal-02082568, HAL.
    6. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua, 2019. "Inflation targeting and output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 102-120.
    8. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    9. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and income velocity in developing economies: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-61.
    10. Fratzscher, Marcel & Grosse-Steffen, Christoph & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Inflation targeting as a shock absorber," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    12. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    13. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    15. Ardakani Omid M. & Kishor N. Kundan, 2018. "Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    17. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Inflation targeting and public deficit in emerging countries: A time varying treatment effect approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 108-114.
    18. Renée A. Fry-McKibbin & Chen Wang, 2014. "Does Inflation Targeting Outperform Alternative Policies during Global Downturns?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-64, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Ardakani Omid M. & Kishor N. Kundan, 2018. "Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2017. "IT Countries: A Breed Apart? the case of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers halshs-01614817, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting; Propensity Score; Treatment Effects; Sieve Estimator; Single Index Model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.