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The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Hoda Youssef, 2012. "Fiscal Manipulation in Non-democratic Regimes: The Case of Egypt," Working Papers 703, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
  2. Chiu, Eric M.P., 2020. "Reexamining the Macroeconomic Policy Cycle in Taiwan: Evidence from the Central Bank’s Monetary Reaction Function," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 89-110, December.
  3. Rabia Nazir & Muhammad Nasir & Idrees Khawaja, 2022. "Political Budget Cycle: A Sub-National Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 343-367, November.
  4. Federico Revelli & Roberto Zotti, 2019. "The sacred and the profane of budget cycles: evidence from Italian municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(6), pages 1446-1477, December.
  5. Hallerberg, Mark & Scartascini, Carlos, 2017. "Explaining changes in tax burdens in Latin America: Do politics trump economics?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 162-179.
  6. Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2012. "Do personal characteristics of finance ministers affect the development of public debt?," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  7. Marcos Yamada Nakaguma & Siegfried Bender, 2004. "A Emenda Da Reeleição E A Lei De Responsabilidade Fiscal: Impactos Sobre Ciclos Políticos E Performance Fiscal Dos Estados (1986-2002)," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  8. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
  9. Chen, Daniel L., 2016. "Priming Ideology: Why Presidential Elections Affect U.S. Judges," TSE Working Papers 16-681, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Aug 2016.
  10. Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2020. "Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 409-425, July.
  11. Chauvin, Juan Pablo & Tricaud, Clemence, 2022. "Gender and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Crisis Response," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12411, Inter-American Development Bank.
  12. Bostashvili, David & Ujhelyi, Gergely, 2019. "Political budget cycles and the civil service: Evidence from highway spending in US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 17-28.
  13. Frank Bohn & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 817-841, October.
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
  16. Denter, Philipp & Sisak, Dana, 2015. "Do polls create momentum in political competition?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-14.
  17. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "First Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(4), pages 1645-1672.
  18. Álvaro Díaz, Henry Laverde, John Jairo Gómez, 2011. "Política tributaria y sus efectos sobre la distribución del ingreso en Colombia durante el siglo XX," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, December.
  19. Gonzalez, Paula & Hindriks, Jean & Lockwood, Ben & Porteiro, Nicholas, 2006. "Political Budget Cycles and Fiscal Decentralization," Economic Research Papers 269635, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  20. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  21. Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2013. "Globalization and Transformation in Central European Countries: The Case of Poland," MPRA Paper 59306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2005. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 11862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. J. Ferris & Soo-Bin Park & Stanley Winer, 2008. "Studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 369-401, October.
  24. Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra & Randjelovic, Sasa, 2017. "Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 367-378.
  25. Zonaira Akbar & Malik Fahim Bashir & Yasir Bin Tariq, 2021. "An analysis of political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(6), pages 2271-2293, December.
  26. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2018. "Resource Windfalls and Public Debt: The Role of Political Myopia," OxCarre Working Papers 205, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  27. Alesina, Alberto & Stella, Andrea, 2010. "The Politics of Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1001-1054, Elsevier.
  28. Samuele Murtinu & Giulio Piccirilli & Agnese Sacchi, 2022. "Rational inattention and politics: how parties use fiscal policies to manipulate voters," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 365-386, March.
  29. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
  30. Gerard H. Kuper, 2018. "The powers that are: central bank independence in the Greenspan era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 485-499, March.
  31. Lenka Stastna, 2015. "Electoral Cycles in Public Expenditures: Evidence from Czech Local Governments," Working Papers IES 2015/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2015.
  32. J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash, 2019. "Expenditure visibility and voter memory: a compositional approach to the political budget cycle in Indian states, 1959–2012," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 129-157, June.
  33. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
  34. Anton Gerunov, 2016. "Cyclical dynamics of key fiscal aggregates in Bulgaria over the period 1998-2014," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 56-73,74-89.
  35. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
  36. Apergis, Nicholas & Hayat, Tasawar & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "US partisan conflict uncertainty and oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  37. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
  38. Erotokritos Varelas, 2015. "Number of Banks, Public Debt, and Workable Competition," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 41-51, February.
  39. Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  40. Frank Bohn, 2018. "Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, October.
  41. Yuan-Hong Ho & Chiung-Ju Huang, 2013. "Presidential Election, Checks and Balances, and Allocation of Public Expenditures in Taiwan," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 9(1), pages 31-53, January.
  42. Stephen B. Kaplan & Kaj Thomsson, 2014. "The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt: Global Finance and Electoral Cycles," Working Papers 2015-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  43. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2005. "Elections And Exchange Rate Policy Cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 151-176, July.
  44. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
  45. Pablo Paniagua, 2016. "The robust political economy of central banking and free banking," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 15-32, March.
  46. Golinelli, Roberto & Momigliano, Sandro, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 943-964, December.
  47. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  48. Revelli, Federico, 2019. "The electoral migration cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 461-482.
  49. Fidel Perez‐Sebastian & Ohad Raveh, 2019. "Federal tax policies, congressional voting and natural resources," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 1112-1164, August.
  50. Fagernäs, Sonja & Pelkonen, Panu, 2014. "Politics Before Pupils? Electoral Cycles and School Resources in India," IZA Discussion Papers 8366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  51. Bharatee Dash & Angara Raja, 2013. "Do political determinants affect the size and composition of public expenditure? A study of the Indian states," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(3), pages 293-317, September.
  52. Arslan Razmi, 2018. "Politics-Driven Exchange Rate Cycles : East Asia vs. Latin America," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-14, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  53. Nadezda Stanova, 2012. "Democratic learning and fiscal rules in the political budget cycles of the CEE countries," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 168-182.
  54. Takaku, Reo & Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2018. "Political cycles in physician employment: A case of Japanese local public hospitals," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 97-106.
  55. Konishi, Hideki, 2006. "Spending cuts or tax increases? The composition of fiscal adjustments as a signal," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1441-1469, August.
  56. Ha, Eunyoung & Kang, Myung-koo, 2015. "Government Policy Responses to Financial Crises: Identifying Patterns and Policy Origins in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 264-281.
  57. Carlos Eduardo Soares Gonçalves & Fernando Roberto Fenolio, 2007. "Ciclos Eleitorais E Política Monetária: Evidências Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 107, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  58. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
  59. Bugarin, Mauricio Soares & Carvalho, Fábia Aparecida de, 2020. "Elections, Heterogeneity of Central Bankers and Inflationary Pressure: The case for staggered terms for the president and the central banker," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 74(4), December.
  60. García, Israel & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  61. Israel Garcia & Bernd Hayo, 2022. "The Influence of Politicians’ Sex on Political Budget Cycles: An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202223, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  62. Shigeoka, Hitoshi & Watanabe, Yasutora, 2023. "Policy Diffusion through Elections," IZA Discussion Papers 16275, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  63. Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Muyang, 2018. "Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1046-1061.
  64. Al-Ississ, Mohamad & Atallah, Samer, 2015. "Patronage and ideology in electoral behavior: Evidence from Egypt's first presidential elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 241-248.
  65. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Does the expectation or realization of a federal election precipitate Canadian output growth?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 107-132, February.
  66. Ishac Diwan & Tarik Akin, 2015. "Fifty Years of Fiscal Policy in the Arab Region," Working Papers 914, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2015.
  67. Galindo-Silva, Hector, 2015. "New parties and policy outcomes: Evidence from Colombian local governments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 86-103.
  68. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2014. "Have the euro area and EU governance worked? Just the facts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-17.
  69. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Dilan Ölcer, 2013. "Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/153, International Monetary Fund.
  70. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Reelection, growth and public debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  71. Pi-Han Tsai, 2014. "State Fiscal Rules and Composition Changes in Public Spending before the Election," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(1), pages 58-91, January.
  72. Jan Kluge & Gunther Markwardt & Christian Thater, 2015. "Self-preserving Leviathans - Evidence from Regional-level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 5177, CESifo.
  73. Fabio Padovano, 2014. "Distribution of transfers and soft budget spending behaviors: evidence from Italian regions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 11-29, October.
  74. Lopez Uribe, Maria del Pilar, 2013. "Roads or Schools? Political Budget Cycles with different types of voters," MPRA Paper 50529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Jorge M. Streb, 2011. "Estabilización económica e incentivos políticos," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 461, Universidad del CEMA.
  76. Beckmann, Joscha & Rogmann, Jennifer, 2024. "Determinants and effects of country ESG controversy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  77. Ray Sturm, 2013. "Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 200-215, April.
  78. Mella, Javier, 2024. "Corporate taxes, partisan politics, and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  79. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Papua New Guinea: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/112, International Monetary Fund.
  80. Sainan Huang & Cristina Terra, 2016. "Exchange Rate Populism," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 105-132, March.
  81. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  83. Jean-Michel Josselin & Fabio Padovano & Yvon Rocaboy, 2013. "Grant legislation vs. political factors as determinants of soft budget spending behaviors. Comparison between Italian and French regions," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(3), pages 317-354, December.
  84. Denter, Philipp & Sisak, Dana, 2013. "Do Polls Create Momentum in Political Campaigns?," Economics Working Paper Series 1326, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
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  88. Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder & A. K. M. Nurul Hossain & Monir Uddin Ahmed, 2016. "Does the central bank contribute to the political monetary cycles in Bangladesh?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 365-394, November.
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