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A Test of the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Pari-mutuel Games
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- Jawwad Noor & Fernando Payró Chew, 2022. "An Axiomatic Approach to the Law of Small Numbers," Working Papers 1364, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Daniel L. Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016.
"Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1181-1242.
- Daniel Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," NBER Working Papers 22026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009.
"Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 903-915, December.
- Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David B. & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample," IZA Discussion Papers 4170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Felix Marklein & Uwe Sunde, 2009. "Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes From a Representative Sample," Post-Print hal-00723191, HAL.
- Dohmen, Thomas J. & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample," Munich Reprints in Economics 20042, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Melissa S. Kearney, 2005. "The Economic Winners and Losers of Legalized Gambling," NBER Working Papers 11234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2007.
"Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets,"
Papers on Strategic Interaction
2005-12, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2012. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754582, HAL.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2012. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Post-Print halshs-00754582, HAL.
- Frederic Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2007. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Jena Economics Research Papers 2007-033, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Dolgikh, Sofiia, 2019. "The influence of subjective beliefs in luck on the decision-making under risk: TV show analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 74-98.
- Frederic Koessler & Ch. Noussair & A. Ziegelmeyer, 2005. "Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," THEMA Working Papers 2005-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Barash, Jori & Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Kodaverdian, Niree, 2019. "Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 305-322.
- Jonathan Guryan & Melissa S. Kearney, 2005. "Lucky Stores, Gambling, and Addiction: Empirical Evidence from State Lottery Sales," NBER Working Papers 11287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- He, Kevin, 2022.
"Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems,"
Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
- Kevin He, 2018. "Mislearning from Censored Data: The Gambler's Fallacy and Other Correlational Mistakes in Optimal-Stopping Problems," Papers 1803.08170, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
- Lex Borghans & Bas ter Weel, 2008.
"Understanding the Technology of Computer Technology Diffusion: Explaining Computer Adoption Patterns and Implications for the Wage Structure,"
Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 17(3-4), pages 37-70, September.
- Borghans, Lex & ter Weel, Bas, 2008. "Understanding the Technology of Computer Technology Diffusion: Explaining Computer Adoption Patterns and Implications for the Wage Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 3792, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Bas ter Weel & L. Borghans, 2009. "Understanding the technoloy of computer technology diffusion: explaining computer adoption patterns and implications for the wage structure," CPB Discussion Paper 117, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Borghans, L. & ter Weel, B.J., 2008. "Understanding the technology of computer technology diffusion: explaining computer adoption patterns and implications for the wage structure," ROA Research Memorandum 008, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
- Theo Offerman & Joep Sonnemans, 2004.
"What’s Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot‐hand Effect,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(3), pages 533-554, October.
- Offerman, T.J.S. & Sonnemans, J.H., 1997. "What's causing overreaction? : An experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect," Discussion Paper 1997-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Offerman, T.J.S. & Sonnemans, J.H., 1997. "What's causing overreaction? : An experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect," Other publications TiSEM 861425ee-7531-4c91-ae9e-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010.
"The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 730-778.
- Rabin, Matthew & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2007. "The gambler's and hot-hand fallacies: theory and applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24476, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Rabin, Matthew, 2007. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2007. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies:Theory and Applications," FMG Discussion Papers dp578, Financial Markets Group.
- Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018.
"Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases,"
NBER Working Papers
25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Suetens, Sigrid & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2012.
"The gambler's fallacy and gender,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 118-124.
- Suetens, S. & Tyran, J.R., 2011. "The Gambler's Fallacy and Gender," Discussion Paper 2011-011, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017.
"Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments,"
NBER Working Papers
23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2018. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1039-1059 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kaivanto, Kim & Kroll, Eike B., 2012.
"Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 263-267.
- Kaivanto, Kim & Kroll, Eike Benjamin, 2011. "Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries," Working Paper Series in Economics 22, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
- Salaghe, Florina & Sundali, James & Nichols, Mark W. & Guerrero, Federico, 2020. "An empirical investigation of wagering behavior in a large sample of slot machine gamblers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 369-388.
- Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. "The Effect of Preceding Sequences on Stock Returns," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(4), pages 83-96.
- Hee Mok Park & Joseph Pancras, 2022. "Social and Spatiotemporal Impacts of Casino Jackpot Events," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 575-592, May.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:3:p:243-259 is not listed on IDEAS
- Brian A. Polin & Eyal Ben Isaac & Itzhak Aharon, 2021. "Patterns in manually selected numbers in the Israeli lottery," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1039-1059, July.
- Qingxia Kong & Georg D. Granic & Nicolas S. Lambert & Chung Piaw Teo, 2020. "Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler’s Fallacy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 844-862, February.
- Daniel Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016.
"Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires,"
NBER Working Papers
22026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chen, Daniel L. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Shue, Kelly, 2016. "Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence From Asylum Courts, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," IAST Working Papers 16-43, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
- Chen, Daniel L. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Shue, Kelly, 2016. "Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence From Asylum Courts, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," TSE Working Papers 16-674, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Elena Asparouhova & Michael Hertzel & Michael Lemmon, 2009. "Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1766-1782, November.
- Andrey Kudryavtsev & Gil Cohen & Shlomit Hon-Snir, 2013. "“Rational” or “Intuitive”: Are Behavioral Biases Correlated Across Stock Market Investors?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
- Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Tong V. Wang & Rogier J. D. Potter van Loon & Martijn J. van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2016. "Number preferences in lotteries," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(3), pages 243-259, May.
- Tatyana Deryugina, 2013. "How do people update? The effects of local weather fluctuations on beliefs about global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 397-416, May.
- Lien, Jaimie W. & Yuan, Jia, 2015. "The cross-sectional “Gambler's Fallacy”: Set representativeness in lottery number choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 163-172.
- Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016.
"Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
- Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn & Suetens, Sigrid & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jorgensen, C.B. & Suetens, S. & Tyran, J.R., 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," Discussion Paper 2011-033, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Claus Bjørn Jørgensen & Sigrid Suetens & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," Discussion Papers 11-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Gregory R. Durham & Michael G. Hertzel & J. Spencer Martin, 2005. "The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2551-2569, October.
- Brian Dillon & Travis J. Lybbert, 2024. "The gambler’s fallacy prevails in lottery play," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 33-56, August.
- Kim Kaivanto & Eike Kroll, 2014. "Alternation bias and reduction in St. Petersburg gambles," Working Papers 65600286, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Yuan, Jia & Sun, Guang-Zhen & Siu, Ricardo, 2014. "The lure of illusory luck: How much are people willing to pay for random shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 269-280.
- Koessler, Frédéric & Noussair, Charles & Ziegelmeyer, Anthony, 2012. "Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 195-208.
- Doidge, Mary & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A., 2017. "A test of the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies in farmers’ weather and market predictions," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Colin Camerer & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "In Honor of Matthew Rabin: Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 159-176, Summer.