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Options in the Real World: Lessons Learned in Evaluating Oil and Gas Investments

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Cited by:

  1. Glinsky, Vadim & Chopra, Sunil & Lücker, Florian, 2020. "Managing Disruption Risk Over the Product Life Cycle," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 101-120, October.
  2. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 988-1000, March.
  3. Guoming Lai & Mulan X. Wang & Sunder Kekre & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi, 2011. "Valuation of Storage at a Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 602-616, June.
  4. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2020. "Least Squares Monte Carlo and Approximate Linear Programming with an Energy Real Option Application," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 178-202, October.
  5. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2010. "Valuing Multifactor Real Options Using an Implied Binomial Tree," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 185-195, June.
  6. Anna Maria Gambaro & Nicola Secomandi, 2021. "A Discussion of Non‐Gaussian Price Processes for Energy and Commodity Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-67, January.
  7. Yangfang (Helen) Zhou & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi & Stephen Smith, 2016. "Electricity Trading and Negative Prices: Storage vs. Disposal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 880-898, March.
  8. Atul Chandra & Peter R. Hartley & Gopalan Nair, 2022. "Multiple Volatility Real Options Approach to Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 79-98, June.
  9. Knaut, Andreas & Madlener, Reinhard & Rosen, Christiane & Vogt, Christian, 2012. "Effects of Temperature Uncertainty on the Valuation of Geothermal Projects: A Real Options Approach," FCN Working Papers 11/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  10. Lin Zhao & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2013. "A Real Option Perspective on Valuing Gas Fields," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-126/VI/DSF60, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Oliva, I. & Ventura, M., 2024. "Who can benefit from multi-license oil concessionaires valuation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  12. James E. Smith, 2005. "Alternative Approaches for Solving Real-Options Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 89-102, June.
  13. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Solis, Ricardo, 2010. "Crude oil market efficiency and modeling: Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 993-1000, September.
  14. Carlos Andres Zapata Quimbayo & Carlos Armando Mej¨ªa Vega, 2019. "Real Options Valuation in Gold Mining Projects under Multinomial Tree Approach," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 204-218, September.
  15. Lin, Tiantian & Zhou, Weihua & Cai, Gangshu (George), 2020. "Guarantor Financing Selection Under Influence of Supply Chain Leadership and Economies of Scale," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 23-43, October.
  16. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Modelling the investment in carbon capture retrofits of pulverized coal-fired plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 66-75.
  17. Vishal Gaur & Sridhar Seshadri & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 2011. "Securitization and Real Investment in Incomplete Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(12), pages 2180-2196, December.
  18. Alain Bensoussan & Benoit Chevalier-Roignant & Alejandro Rivera, 2022. "A model for wind farm management with option interactions," Post-Print hal-04325553, HAL.
  19. Fedorov, Semyon & Lavrutich, Maria & Hagspiel, Verena & Lerdahl, Thomas, 2022. "Risk and benefit sharing schemes in oil exploration and production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  20. Michael Prange & William J. Bailey & Benoit Couët & Hugues Djikpesse & Margaret Armstrong & Alain Galli & David Wilkinson, 2008. "Valuing Future Information Under Uncertainty Using Polynomial Chaos," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 140-156, September.
  21. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
  22. de Matta, Renato & Hsu, Vernon, 2020. "Managing Disruption Risk Over the Product Life Cycle," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 121-137., October.
  23. Kumar, Sourabh & Kumar Barua, Mukesh, 2022. "Modeling and investigating the interaction among risk factors of the sustainable petroleum supply chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  24. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "Optimal Commodity Trading with a Capacitated Storage Asset," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 449-467, March.
  25. Adrian Werner, Kristin Tolstad Uggen, Marte Fodstad, Arnt-Gunnar Lium, and Ruud Egging, 2014. "Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming for Integrated Portfolio Planning in the LNG Supply Chain," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  26. Pendharkar, Parag C., 2010. "Valuing interdependent multi-stage IT investments: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 847-859, March.
  27. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
  28. Omar Besbes & Sergei Savin, 2009. "Going Bunkers: The Joint Route Selection and Refueling Problem," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 694-711, February.
  29. Selvaprabu Nadarajah & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Relaxations of Approximate Linear Programs for the Real Option Management of Commodity Storage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 3054-3076, December.
  30. Cerqueti, Roy & Ventura, Marco, 2020. "Optimal concession contracts for oil exploitation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  31. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
  32. Zhou, Yuanqi & Yang, Jinqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2023. "Optimizing energy efficiency investments in steel firms: A real options model considering carbon trading and tax cuts during challenging economic conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  33. Hahn, Warren J. & Dyer, James S., 2008. "Discrete time modeling of mean-reverting stochastic processes for real option valuation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 534-548, January.
  34. Zhu, Lei & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty: How to make informed decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 742-762.
  35. Guiotto, Paolo & Roncoroni, Andrea & Turcic, Danko, 2020. "The Term Structure of Optimal Operations," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 155-177, October.
  36. Foo, Nam & Bloch, Harry & Salim, Ruhul, 2018. "The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 123-132.
  37. Detert, Neal & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 136-150.
  38. Berntsen, Martin & Bøe, Kristine Skjong & Jordal, Therese & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Determinants of oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 904-914.
  39. Cao, Bin & Chen, Xin & Cheng, T. C. Edwin & Zhong, Yuan-Guang & Zhou, Yong-Wu, 2020. "Inventory and Financial Strategies with Capital Constraints and Limited Joint Liability," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 44-59, October.
  40. Guoming Lai & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "An Approximate Dynamic Programming Approach to Benchmark Practice-Based Heuristics for Natural Gas Storage Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 564-582, June.
  41. Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage Practice Revisited," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
  42. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  43. Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei, 2010. "A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 627-637, May.
  44. Bai, Yang & Meng, Jie & Meng, Fanyi & Fang, Guochang, 2020. "Stochastic analysis of a shale gas investment strategy for coping with production uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  45. Kuangyuan Zhang & Richard Olawoyin & Antonio Nieto & Andrew N. Kleit, 2018. "Risk of commodity price, production cost and time to build in resource economics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 2521-2544, December.
  46. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
  47. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
  48. Kouvelis, Panos & Dong, Ling & Turcic, Danko, 2020. "Advances in Supply Chain Finance and FinTech Innovations Overview," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-4, October.
  49. Secomandi, Nicola, 2022. "Quadratic hedging of risk neutral values," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  50. Nicola Secomandi & Mulan X. Wang, 2012. "A Computational Approach to the Real Option Management of Network Contracts for Natural Gas Pipeline Transport Capacity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 441-454, July.
  51. Nicola Secomandi & Sunder Kekre, 2014. "Optimal Energy Procurement in Spot and Forward Markets," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 270-282, May.
  52. Meade, Nigel, 2010. "Oil prices -- Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1485-1498, November.
  53. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
  54. Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Kirsten I. M. Rohde & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2015. "Discounted Utility and Present Value—A Close Relation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1420-1430, December.
  55. Ghoddusi, Hamed, 2020. "Renewable Identification Numbers: A Supply-Chain Risk View," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 77-100, October.
  56. Laing, Elaine & Lucey, Brian M. & Lütkemeyer, Tobias, 2020. "Which form of hedging matters — Operational or financial? Evidence from the US oil and gas sector," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  57. Fedorov, Semyon & Hagspiel, Verena & Rogstad, Richard W.H. & Haseldonckx, Sophie & Haugsgjerd, Johannes H. & Rønning, Anders, 2024. "Evaluation of tieback developments for marginal oil fields with timing flexibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  58. Mikael Collan & Jyrki Savolainen & Pasi Luukka, 2017. "Investigating the effect of price process selection on the value of a metal mining asset portfolio," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 107-115, July.
  59. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
  60. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
  61. J. Eric Bickel & James E. Smith, 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 16-32, March.
  62. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Solving the Capacity Optimization Problem under Demand Uncertainty," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(34), pages 97-116, (4).
  63. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
  64. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling: An update," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2604-2622.
  65. Gan, Rowena Jingxing & Tsoukalas, Gerry & Netessine, Serguei, 2020. "Financing Inventory Through Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 60-76, October.
  66. Shao, Lusheng & Anderson, Edward & Chen, Bo, 2020. "Achieving Efficiency in Capacity Procurement," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 138-154., October.
  67. Yang, S. Alex & Birge, John R., 2020. "Trade Credit in Supply Chains: Multiple Creditors and Priority Rules," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 14(1-2), pages 5-22, October.
  68. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "On the Pricing of Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 393-408, October.
  69. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
  70. Regnier, Eva, 2007. "Oil and energy price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 405-427, May.
  71. Jostein Tvedt, 2022. "Optimal Entry and Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty and the Impact of Mean Reversion," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-21, December.
  72. Alain Bensoussan & Benoît Chevalier‐Roignant & Alejandro Rivera, 2022. "A model for wind farm management with option interactions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(7), pages 2853-2871, July.
  73. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Margot, François & Secomandi, Nicola, 2017. "Comparison of least squares Monte Carlo methods with applications to energy real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 196-204.
  74. De Reyck, Bert & Degraeve, Zeger & Vandenborre, Roger, 2008. "Project options valuation with net present value and decision tree analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 341-355, January.
  75. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
  76. Shaton, Katerina, 2015. "Value of Flexibility in Gas Pipeline Investments," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Kersten, Wolfgang & Blecker, Thorsten & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Innovations and Strategies for Logistics and Supply Chains: Technologies, Business Models and Risk Management. Proceedings of the Hamburg Internationa, volume 20, pages 333-357, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
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