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Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior

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  1. Rae, Andrew & Alexander, Rob & McDermid, John, 2014. "Fixing the cracks in the crystal ball: A maturity model for quantitative risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 67-81.
  2. Marine Hainguerlot & Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud & Vincent de Gardelle, 2023. "How Overconfidence Bias Influences Suboptimality in Perceptual Decision Making," Post-Print hal-04197403, HAL.
  3. Ellison, Martin & Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "A rational inattention unemployment trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  4. Eric Johnson & Suzanne Shu & Benedict Dellaert & Craig Fox & Daniel Goldstein & Gerald Häubl & Richard Larrick & John Payne & Ellen Peters & David Schkade & Brian Wansink & Elke Weber, 2012. "Beyond nudges: Tools of a choice architecture," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 487-504, June.
  5. Samuel D. Bond & Kurt A. Carlson & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 56-70, January.
  6. Mahdi Mahmoudzadeh & Aadhaar Chaturvedi, 2024. "A Behavioral Model of Responsible Sourcing in Supply Chains: The Role of Dual-Sourcing Bias," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 196-214, December.
  7. Simon Kloker & Tim Straub & Christof Weinhardt, 2019. "Moderators for Partition Dependence in Prediction Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 723-756, August.
  8. Enrico Diecidue & Dolchai La-ornual, 2009. "Reconciling support theory and the book-making principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 173-190, June.
  9. Els Hannes & Diana Kusumastuti & Maikel Espinosa & Davy Janssens & Koen Vanhoof & Geert Wets, 2012. "Mental maps and travel behaviour: meanings and models," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 143-165, April.
  10. Feng, Zhiyu & Liu, Yukun & Wang, Zhen & Savani, Krishna, 2020. "Let’s choose one of each: Using the partition dependence effect to increase diversity in organizations," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 11-26.
  11. Marttunen, Mika & Belton, Valerie & Lienert, Judit, 2018. "Are objectives hierarchy related biases observed in practice? A meta-analysis of environmental and energy applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(1), pages 178-194.
  12. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  13. Sarah K. Jacobi & Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2007. "Quantifying and Mitigating the Splitting Bias and Other Value Tree-Induced Weighting Biases," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 194-210, December.
  14. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  15. Liangyan Wang & Xun Deng & Haipeng (Allan) Chen, 2024. "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet? The impact of hierarchical labeling on consumers’ choices in tiered pricing plans," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 259-273, June.
  16. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
  17. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
  20. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
  21. Nader T. Tavassoli & Matteo Visentin, 2022. "To buy or how much to buy? Partition dependence in purchase-quantity decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 177-188, June.
  22. Zhengqiu Zhu & Bin Chen & Sihang Qiu & Rongxiao Wang & Feiran Chen & Yiping Wang & Xiaogang Qiu, 2018. "An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, March.
  23. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  24. Daniel J. Walters & Philip M. Fernbach & Craig R. Fox & Steven A. Sloman, 2017. "Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4298-4307, December.
  25. Zhou, Wenhui & Wan, Qiang & Zhang, Ren-Qian, 2017. "Choosing among hospitals in the subsidized health insurance system of China: A sequential game approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(2), pages 568-585.
  26. Baratgin, Jean, 2009. "Updating our beliefs about inconsistency: The Monty-Hall case," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 67-95, January.
  27. Botzen, W.J.W. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2012. "Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks: WTP for flood insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 151-166.
  28. Lionel Page, 2012. "‘It ain’t over till it's over.’ Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 81-92, January.
  29. Sarah A. Kusumastuti & Jim Blythe & Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John, 2020. "Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber‐Attack Game," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 476-493, March.
  30. Robert J. Batt & Jordan D. Tong, 2020. "Mean Service Metrics: Biased Quality Judgment and the Customer–Server Quality Gap," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 975-995, September.
  31. Robert F. Bordley, 2009. "Combining the Opinions of Experts Who Partition Events Differently," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 38-46, March.
  32. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
  33. Little, Andrew T., 2022. "Information Theory and Biased Beliefs," OSF Preprints vfqy2, Center for Open Science.
  34. Ilke Aydogan, 2021. "Prior Beliefs and Ambiguity Attitudes in Decision from Experience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 6934-6945, November.
  35. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Gilberto Montibeller, 2015. "Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
  36. Yang, Jie & Zhao, Daozhi & Wang, Zeyu & Xu, Chunqiu, 2022. "Impact of regulation on on-demand ride-sharing service: Profit-based target vs demand-based target," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  37. Riege, Anine H. & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 2013. "Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 41-52.
  38. Chenmu Xing & Katherine Williams & Jamie Hom & Meghana Kandlur & Praise Owoyemi & Joanna Paul & Ray Alexander & Elizabeth Shackney & Hilary Barth, 2020. "Partition dependence in financial aid distribution to income categories," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, April.
  39. Niels Bugert & Rainer Lasch, 2023. "Analyzing upstream and downstream risk propagation in supply networks by combining Agent-based Modeling and Bayesian networks," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(5), pages 859-889, July.
  40. Robert T. Clemen & Canan Ulu, 2008. "Interior Additivity and Subjective Probability Assessment of Continuous Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 835-851, April.
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