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On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders

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Cited by:

  1. Leitner, Stephan & Rausch, Alexandra & Behrens, Doris A., 2017. "Distributed investment decisions and forecasting errors: An analysis based on a multi-agent simulation model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 279-294.
  2. Kourtidis, Dimitrios & Šević, Željko & Chatzoglou, Prodromos, 2011. "Investors’ trading activity: A behavioural perspective and empirical results," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 548-557.
  3. G. K. Deshmukh & Sanskrity Joseph, 2016. "Behavioural Finance: An Introspection of Investors Psychology," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 7(1), pages 97-102, January.
  4. Abu Khalaf K. Bashar & Firas Y. Hammash, 2017. "Are Amman Stock Exchange Investors Overconfident?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 7-10.
  5. Zhang, Mingshan, 2022. "Warren Buffett Anomaly," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  6. Zacharias Sautner & Martin Weber, 2009. "How Do Managers Behave In Stock Option Plans? Clinical Evidence From Exercise And Survey Data," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 123-155, June.
  7. Laurent Germain & Fabrice Rousseau & Anne Vanhems, 2014. "Irrational Market Makers," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 35(1), pages 107-145.
  8. Michał Krawczyk, 2011. "Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals," Working Papers 2011-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  9. Enrique Fatas & Tibor Neugebauer & Pilar Tamborero, 2007. "How Politicians Make Decisions: A Political Choice Experiment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 92(2), pages 167-196, October.
  10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0387 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Rakesh K. Sarin, 2013. "From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 277-278, December.
  12. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of professionals and lay men : individual differences within and between tasks?," Papers 05-25, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  13. Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2014. "Judgmental overconfidence and trading activity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 827-842.
  14. Stefan Ruenzi, 2005. "Mutual Fund Growth in Standard and Specialist Market Segments," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 153-167, August.
  15. Pikulina, E.S. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Tobler, P.N., 2014. "Overconfidence, Effort, and Investment (Revised version of CentER DP 2013-035)," Discussion Paper 2014-039, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2013. "Overconfidence, experience, and professionalism: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-101.
  17. Francesco Castellaneta & Oliver Gottschalg & Aleksandra Kacperczyk & Mike Wright, 2022. "Experience as Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde: Performance Outcome Delays in the Private Equity Context," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1359-1385, September.
  18. Brosig-Koch, Jeannette & Keldenich, Klemens, 2012. "The More You Know? – Consumption Behavior and the Communication of Economic Information," Ruhr Economic Papers 387, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  19. L. Robin Keller, 2010. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 235-237, September.
  20. David V. Budescu & Ning Du, 2007. "Coherence and Consistency of Investors' Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1731-1744, November.
  21. Bottasso, Anna & Duchêne, Sébastien & Guerci, Eric & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Noussair, Charles N., 2022. "Higher order risk attitudes of financial experts," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
  22. Mei-Chen Lin, 2005. "Returns and Investor Behavior in Taiwan: Does Overconfidence Explain this Relationship?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 405-446.
  23. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January.
  24. repec:dpr:wpaper:1156 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006. "The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
  26. Rafał Wolski & Monika Bolek & Jerzy Gajdka & Janusz Brzeszczyński & Ali M. Kutan, 2023. "Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 757-794, February.
  27. Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2024.
  28. Sanjit Dhami & Ali al-Nowaihi & Cass R. Sunstein, 2019. "Heuristics and Public Policy: Decision-making Under Bounded Rationality," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 7(1), pages 7-58, June.
  29. Huber, Christoph & Huber, Jürgen & Hueber, Laura, 2019. "The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  30. Christoph Huber & Christian König-Kersting & Matteo M. Marini, 2022. "Experimenting with Financial Professionals," Working Papers 2022-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, revised Jun 2024.
  31. Menkhoff Lukas & Schmeling Maik & Schmidt Ulrich, 2010. "Are All Professional Investors Sophisticated?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 418-440, December.
  32. Wan, Liangyong & Ren, Liuyang & Lin, Bingxuan & Xu, Xiaowei, 2021. "Does investment banker human capital matter in acquisitions? Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  33. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2009. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 53-56, June.
  34. Kai Duttle, 2016. "Cognitive Skills And Confidence: Interrelations With Overestimation, Overplacement And Overprecision," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(S1), pages 42-55, December.
  35. Kevin Lee & Scott Miller & Nicole Velasquez & Christi Wann, 2013. "The Effect of Investor Bias and Gender on Portfolio Performance and Risk," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16.
  36. Jeannette Brosig-Koch & Klemens Keldenich, 2012. "The More You Know? – Consumption Behavior and the Communication of Economic Information," Ruhr Economic Papers 0387, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  37. Danková, Katarína & Servátka, Maroš, 2019. "Gender robustness of overconfidence and excess entry," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 179-199.
  38. Pikulina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe N., 2017. "Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 175-192.
  39. Lambert, Jérôme & Bessière, Véronique & N’Goala, Gilles, 2012. "Does expertise influence the impact of overconfidence on judgment, valuation and investment decision?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1115-1128.
  40. Christoph Gort & Mei Wang, 2010. "Overconfidence and Active Management," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  41. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
  42. Gerlinde Fellner, 2004. "Illusion of control as a source of poor diversification: An experimental approach," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2004-28, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
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