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The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment

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Cited by:

  1. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2020. "Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  2. Vítor Constâncio & Philipp Hartmann & Oreste Tristani, 2015. "Inflation and unemployment in Europe – insights from the ECB’s 2015 Sintra Forum," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 23, pages 1-8.
  3. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
  4. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Fang, Xiangming & Kim, Young & Lledó, Victor & Mbaye, Samba & Zhang, Xiaoxiao, 2019. "Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 53-69.
  5. Pan, Changchun & Huang, Yuzhe & Jin, Long, 2024. "Natural disasters and corporate tax burden: Evidence from chinese energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  6. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
  7. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
  8. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  9. António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  10. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Fiscal Deficit Forecasts by International Institutions: Evidence for a Double Standard?," KAE Working Papers 2019-044, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  11. Carabotta, Laura & Paluzie, Elisenda & Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 694-706.
  12. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
  13. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
  14. António Afonso & Ana Sofia Guimarães, 2014. "The relevance of fiscal rules for fiscal and yield developments," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  15. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  16. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  17. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
  18. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
  19. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
  20. Chakraborty, Lekha & Chakraborty, Pinaki & Shrestha, Ruzel, 2019. "Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments: Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India," Working Papers 19/280, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  21. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  22. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
  23. Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 3939, CESifo.
  24. Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 101-109, January.
  25. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2016. "Interpreting Fiscal Accounting Rules in the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 6228, CESifo.
  26. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance," Working Papers 1416, Banco de España.
  27. Ademmer Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe Jens, 2022. "The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(2), pages 171-190, April.
  28. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
  29. Lasse Aaskoven, 2016. "Fiscal Transparency, Elections and Public Employment: Evidence from the OECD," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 317-341, November.
  30. Haryo KUNCORO, 2016. "The Credibility Of Fiscal Rules Policy And Business Cycle Volatility," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 63(2), pages 209-224, July.
  31. Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.
  32. Kuncoro Haryo, 2016. "The Credibility of Fiscal Rules Policy and Business Cycle Volatility," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 209-224, June.
  33. Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.
  34. Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
  35. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
  36. Philippe Andrade, 2015. "The heterogeneous interpretation of forward guidance," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 23, pages 9-14.
  37. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
  38. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  39. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  40. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vítor Ribeiro Laufer Calafate, 2021. "Lack of fiscal transparency and economic growth expectations: an empirical assessment from a large emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2985-3027, December.
  41. Luisa Giuriato & Alessandra Cepparulo & Matteo Barberi, 2016. "Fiscal forecasts and political systems: a legislative budgeting perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-22, July.
  42. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1113-1131.
  43. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2013. "From Budgetary Forecasts To Ex Post Fiscal Data: Exploring The Evolution Of Fiscal Forecast Errors In The European Union," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 795-813, October.
  44. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. David Cronin & Niall McInerney, 2024. "Institutional Quality and Official Budgetary Forecast Performance in EU Member States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 80(2), pages 165-192.
  46. Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?," NBER Working Papers 22349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Shun-ichiro Bessho & Kimiko Terai, 2013. "Fiscal restraints by advisors," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 205-232, August.
  49. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
  50. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
  51. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  53. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-080/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  54. Cronin, David & McGowan, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries," Papers WP756, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  55. Lekha Chakraborty & Pinaki Chakraborty & Ruzel Shrestha, 2020. "Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments: Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_964, Levy Economics Institute.
  56. Alessandro Giosi & Silvia Testarmata & Sandro Brunelli & Bianca Staglianò, 2012. "Does the Quality of Public Finance Enhance Fiscal Discipline in the European Union? A Cross-Country Analysis," DSI Essays Series, DSI - Dipartimento di Studi sull'Impresa, vol. 21.
  57. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2017. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: follow-up, multipliers and confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  59. Joan Paredes, 2015. "Shall we trust governments' fiscal plans?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 23, pages 15-18.
  60. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.
  61. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 67-81.
  62. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2018. "Revenue- versus spending-based consolidation plans: the role of follow-up," Working Paper Series 2178, European Central Bank.
  63. Xisco Oliver Rullán & Joan Rosselló Villalonga, 2018. "The Determinants of Regional Budget Forecast Errors in Federal Economies: Spain 1995-2013," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 226(3), pages 85-121, September.
  64. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Market Discipline Under A Politicised Multilateral Fiscal Rule - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-35, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  65. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
  66. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  67. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Bernoth, Kerstin & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
  69. Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos de Deus & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2015. "Empirical evidence on fiscal forecasting in Eurozone countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 838-860, October.
  70. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Rules - 85 Years' Experience in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 6063, CESifo.
  71. Haryo Kuncoro, 2018. "A feasibility study of establishing fiscal council in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(2), pages 137-147, Oktober.
  72. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  73. Jalles, João Tovar & Karibzhanov, Iskander & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Cross-country evidence on the quality of private sector fiscal forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-201.
  74. Patricia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2013. "The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  75. Jürgen Hagen, 2010. "Sticking to fiscal plans: the role of institutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 487-503, September.
  76. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Antonio Sánchez Fuentes, 2014. "A Tookit to strengthen Government," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 211(4), pages 117-146, December.
  77. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
  78. Nada Azmy ElBerry & Stijn Goeminne, 2021. "Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 144-161, January.
  79. Teresa Leal & Diego Pedregal & Javier Pérez, 2011. "Short-term monitoring of the Spanish government balance," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 97-119, March.
  80. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Deus, Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos, 2019. "Central bank forecasts and private expectations: An empirical assessment from three emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
  81. repec:dgr:rugsom:12010-eef is not listed on IDEAS
  82. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2015. "The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1318-1329.
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