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The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
  2. Friedel Bolle & Jessica Kaehler, 2006. "Coleman's Hypothesis on trusting behaviour and a remark on meta-studies," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 469-483.
  3. Kovalchik, Stephanie & Camerer, Colin F. & Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R. & Allman, John M., 2005. "Aging and decision making: a comparison between neurologically healthy elderly and young individuals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 79-94, September.
  4. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
  5. Brenner, Lyle & Griffin, Dale & Koehler, Derek J., 2005. "Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 64-81, May.
  6. Juslin, Peter & Olsson, Henrik & Winman, Anders, 1998. "The Calibration Issue: Theoretical Comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 3-26, January.
  7. McKenzie, Craig R. M., 1997. "Underweighting Alternatives and Overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 141-160, August.
  8. Dubard Barbosa, Saulo & Fayolle, Alain & Smith, Brett R., 2019. "Biased and overconfident, unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 528-557.
  9. Juslin, Peter & Winman, Anders & Olsson, Henrik, 2003. "Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 34-51.
  10. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:857-869 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Brenner, Lyle A., 2003. "A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 87-110, January.
  12. Daniela Grieco & Robin Hogarth, 2004. "Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation," Economics Working Papers 778, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Johnson, Johnnie E. V. & Bruce, Alistair C., 2001. "Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 265-290, July.
  14. Dorota Skała, 2008. "Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 39(4), pages 33-50.
  15. Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2011. "True overconfidence: The inability of rational information processing to account for apparent overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 262-271.
  16. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Kenneth, 2001. "The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-633.
  17. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
  18. David V. Budescu & Timothy R. Johnson, 2011. "A model-based approach for the analysis of the calibration of probability judgments," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 857-869, December.
  19. Stephen C. Hora, 2004. "Probability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 597-604, May.
  20. Robin Hogarth, 2003. "Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence -- and lack of evidence -- from random samples of real-world behavior," Working Papers 39, Barcelona School of Economics.
  21. Saulo Dubard Barbosa & Alain Fayolle & Brett Smith, 2019. "Biased and overconfident, unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture," Post-Print hal-01988083, HAL.
  22. David V. Budescu & Ning Du, 2007. "Coherence and Consistency of Investors' Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1731-1744, November.
  23. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
  24. Robin Hogarth, 2003. "Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?," Economics Working Papers 655, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2004.
  25. Olsson, Henrik, 2014. "Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1766-1770.
  26. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2009. "Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-49, February.
  27. Price, Paul C., 1998. "Effects of a Relative-Frequency Elicitation Question on Likelihood Judgment Accuracy: The Case of External Correspondence, , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 277-297, December.
  28. Gino, Francesca & Sharek, Zachariah & Moore, Don A., 2011. "Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 104-114, March.
  29. Mary Kynn, 2008. "The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 239-264, January.
  30. Bender, Randall H., 1998. "Judgment and Response Processes across Two Knowledge Domains," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 222-257, September.
  31. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  32. Langnickel, Ferdinand & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2016. "Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 121-133.
  33. Schilirò, Daniele, 2015. "Psychology into economics: fast and frugal heuristics," MPRA Paper 78162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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