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Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
  2. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
  3. Ehrlinger, Joyce & Johnson, Kerri & Banner, Matthew & Dunning, David & Kruger, Justin, 2008. "Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 98-121, January.
  4. Fischer, Ilan & Budescu, David V., 2005. "When do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The development of confidence and performance in categorical decision tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 39-53, September.
  5. Eyal Peer & Lidor Solomon, 2012. "Professionally biased: Misestimations of driving speed, journey time and time-savings among taxi and car drivers," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(2), pages 165-172, March.
  6. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Ilan Fischer & Ravid Bogaire, 2012. "The Group Calibration Index: a group-based approach for assessing forecasters’ expertise when external outcome data are missing," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 671-685, October.
  8. Oberlechner, Thomas & Osler, Carol, 2012. "Survival of Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 91-113, February.
  9. Andrew Healy, 2005. "How Do People Learn by Listening to Others? Experimental Evidence from Thailand," Experimental 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Mario GRAZIANO & Daniele SCHILIRÒ, 2011. "Rationality And Choices In Economics: Behavioral And Evolutionary Approaches," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 182-195.
  11. repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:2:p:165-172 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  13. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115333, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Roy M. Poses & Randall D. Cebul & Robert M. Centor, 1988. "Eualuating Physicians' Probabilistic Judgments," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 8(4), pages 233-240, December.
  15. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
  16. Schilirò, Daniele & Graziano, Mario, 2011. "Scelte e razionalità nei modelli economici: un'analisi multidisciplinare [Choices and rationality in economic models: a multidisciplinary analysis]," MPRA Paper 31910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Paul Ferraro, 2005. "Know thyself: Incompetence and overconfidence," Framed Field Experiments 00148, The Field Experiments Website.
  18. J. A. García & Rosa Rodriguez-Sánchez & J. Fdez-Valdivia, 2016. "Authors and reviewers who suffer from confirmatory bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(2), pages 1377-1395, November.
  19. Mathew L. A. Hayward & Dean A. Shepherd & Dale Griffin, 2006. "A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 160-172, February.
  20. Bolger, Fergus & Onkal-Atay, Dilek, 2004. "The effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 29-39.
  21. Brenner, Lyle & Griffin, Dale & Koehler, Derek J., 2005. "Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 64-81, May.
  22. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2007. "Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 480-497, March.
  23. McKenzie, Craig R.M. & Liersch, Michael J. & Yaniv, Ilan, 2008. "Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 179-191, November.
  24. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:29-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. George Wright & Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2002. "An Empirical Test of the Relative Validity of Expert and Lay Judgments of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 1107-1122, December.
  26. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
  27. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:4:p:369-381 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Niklas Valentin Lehmann, 2024. "Mechanisms for belief elicitation without ground truth," Papers 2409.07277, arXiv.org.
  29. Munier, Francis & Ronde, Patrick, 2001. "The role of knowledge codification in the emergence of consensus under uncertainty: empirical analysis and policy implications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1537-1551, December.
  30. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
  31. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2003. "Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating Of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts," Working Papers 14762, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  32. Mukund Chari & H. Kevin Steensma & Charles Connaughton, 2020. "Previous and Prospective Career Mobility, Client Capture, and Compromised Professional Judgment: The Withholding of Known Relevant Prior Art by Patent Lawyers on Behalf of Their Clients," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 489-507, March.
  33. Stone, Eric R. & Opel, Ryan B., 2000. "Training to Improve Calibration and Discrimination: The Effects of Performance and Environmental Feedback," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 282-309, November.
  34. Leitner, Stephan & Rausch, Alexandra & Behrens, Doris A., 2017. "Distributed investment decisions and forecasting errors: An analysis based on a multi-agent simulation model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 279-294.
  35. J. A. Garcia & Rosa Rodriguez-Sánchez & J. Fdez-Valdivia, 2020. "Confirmatory bias in peer review," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(1), pages 517-533, April.
  36. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
  37. Barbara A. Mellers & Joshua D. Baker & Eva Chen & David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock, 2017. "How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(4), pages 369-381, July.
  38. Michał Krawczyk & Maciej Wilamowski, 2022. "Calibration and incentives: evidence from contract bridge," Working Papers 2022-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  39. Mary Kynn, 2008. "The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 239-264, January.
  40. Bender, Randall H., 1998. "Judgment and Response Processes across Two Knowledge Domains," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 222-257, September.
  41. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  42. Erik Angner, 2006. "Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
  43. Nelson, Mark W. & Bloomfield, Robert & Hales, Jeffrey W. & Libby, Robert, 2001. "The Effect of Information Strength and Weight on Behavior in Financial Markets," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 168-196, November.
  44. Forbes, Daniel P., 2005. "Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 623-640, September.
  45. Julia P. Prims & Don A. Moore, 2017. "Overconfidence over the lifespan," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(1), pages 29-41, January.
  46. Helen Fischer & Stefanie Schütte & Anneliese Depoux & Dorothee Amelung & Rainer Sauerborn, 2018. "How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-11, April.
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