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Calibration and incentives: evidence from contract bridge

Author

Listed:
  • Michał Krawczyk

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Maciej Wilamowski

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

We elicit probability forecasts from amateur contract bridge players. At the end of the auction of each deal in a tournament, the players were asked to make a guess (unobservable to others) about the probability with which the contract will be made. We observe them to be overall poorly calibrated. We also find that incentivizing correct forecasts makes no difference.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Krawczyk & Maciej Wilamowski, 2022. "Calibration and incentives: evidence from contract bridge," Working Papers 2022-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-06
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/1358/0
    File Function: First version, 2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, April.
    2. Krawczyk, Michał, 2012. "Incentives and timing in relative performance judgments: A field experiment," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1240-1246.
    3. Keren, Gideon, 1987. "Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-114, February.
    4. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; forecast incentives; gender differences; bridge into professions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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