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Stock return predictability and model uncertainty
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Cited by:
- Jäckel, Christoph, 2013. "Model uncertainty and expected return proxies," MPRA Paper 51978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
- Puneet Handa, 2006. "Does Stock Return Predictability Imply Improved Asset Allocation and Performance? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market (1954–2002)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2423-2468, September.
- Paul P.J. Gao & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2008.
"Aggregate Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Some International Evidence,"
Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, May.
- Paul Gao & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2004. "Aggregate consumption-wealth ratio and the cross-section of stock returns: some international evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 04-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010.
"International stock return predictability under model uncertainty,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
- Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013.
"Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Working Paper series 42_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2005.
"The Term Structure of the Risk–Return Trade-Off,"
Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 34-44, January.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Viceira, Luis, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," CEPR Discussion Papers 4914, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- João M. Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2019.
"Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the Euro Area, the US and the UK,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 139-176, June.
- Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Asset returns under model uncertainty: evidence from the euro area, the U.S. and the U.K," Working Paper Series 1575, European Central Bank.
- Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009.
"Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value,"
Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 341-381, September.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," CeRP Working Papers 82, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Giannikis, Dimitrios & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2011. "A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1399-1414, June.
- P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015.
"Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2004. "Data-generating process uncertainty: What difference does it make in portfolio decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 385-421, May.
- Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang & Christian Julliard, 2023.
"Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 487-557, February.
- Bryzgalova, Svetlana & Huang, Jiantao & Julliard, Christian, 2020. "Bayesian solutions for the factor zoo: we just ran two quadrillion models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118924, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Vrontos, Ioannis D. & Giamouridis, Daniel, 2008. "Hedge fund pricing and model uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 741-753, May.
- Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005.
"Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
- Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2005. "Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," 2005 Meeting Papers 770, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
- Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011.
"Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S,"
Working Papers
w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Eveidence from the euro area, the U.K and the U.S," NIPE Working Papers 21/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010.
"1/N and Long Run Optimal Portfolios: Results for Mixed Asset Menus,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
190, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "1/N and long run optimal portfolios: results for mixed asset menus," Working Papers 2010-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, "undated".
"Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns,"
Working Papers
221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Aiolfi, Marco, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
- Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Are calculated betas good for anything?," IESE Research Papers D/555, IESE Business School.
- Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2011.
"Markowitz meets Talmud: A combination of sophisticated and naive diversification strategies,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 204-215, January.
- Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Markowitz meets Talmud: A combination of sophisticated and naive diversification strategies," CEMA Working Papers 715, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Gomes, Francisco J., 2007. "Exploiting short-run predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1427-1440, May.
- Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2015.
"What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? Evidence from regressions on the dividend-price ratio,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 74-93.
- Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2011. "What is the Chance that the Equity Premium Varies over Time? Evidence from Regressions on the Dividend-Price Ratio," NBER Working Papers 17334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang, Wei, 2007. "Financial integration and the price of world covariance risk: Large- vs. small-cap stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1311-1337, December.
- Wright, Jonathan H., 2008.
"Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Murray Carlson & David A. Chapman & Ron Kaniel & Hong Yan, 2015.
"Asset Return Predictability in a Heterogeneous Agent Equilibrium Model,"
Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-45.
- Kaniel, Ron & Yan, Hong & Carlson, Murray & Chapman, David A., 2015. "Asset Return Predictability in a Heterogeneous Agent Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 10328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
- Doron Avramov & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Bayesian Portfolio Analysis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 25-47, December.
- Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
- Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
- Avramov, Doron & Wermers, Russ, 2006.
"Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 339-377, August.
- Avramov, Doron & Wermers, Russ, 2005. "Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable," CFR Working Papers 05-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009.
"Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
- Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2006. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," 2006 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2007. "Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?," NBER Working Papers 13165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francisco Peñaranda, 2004. "Are Vector Autoregressions an Accurate Model for Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wp2004_0419, CEMFI.
- Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society.
- Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics.
- Drobetz, Wolfgang & Kugler, Peter & Wanzenried, Gabrielle & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2009.
"Heterogeneity in asset allocation decisions: Empirical evidence from Switzerland,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 84-93, March.
- Drobetz, Wolfgang & Kugler, Peter & Wanzenried, Gabrielle & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Asset Allocation Decisions - Empirical Evidence from Switzerland," Working papers 2006/03, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Jessica A. Wachter, 2010.
"Asset Allocation,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 175-206, December.
- Jessica Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 16255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2012.
"The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?,"
Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-41.
- Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2006. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Working Papers 06-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2011. "Predicting Short-Term Interest Rates: Does Bayesian Model Averaging Provide Forecast Improvement?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Hahn, Jaehoon & Lee, Hangyong, 2006. "Interpreting the predictive power of the consumption-wealth ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 183-202, March.
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Yu, Hai-Chin & Wu, Ming-Chya, 2009. "Statistical properties, dynamic conditional correlation and scaling analysis: Evidence from Dow Jones and Nasdaq high-frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1555-1570.
- Byrne, Joseph & Fu, Rong, 2016. "Stock Return Prediction with Fully Flexible Models and Coefficients," MPRA Paper 75366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2006:i:36:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
- Jennie Bai, 2010. "Equity premium predictions with adaptive macro indexes," Staff Reports 475, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D. & Vrontos, Spyridon D., 2009. "Quantile regression analysis of hedge fund strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 264-279, March.
- Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
- Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
- Wegener, Christian & von Nitzsch, Rüdiger & Cengiz, Cetin, 2010. "An advanced perspective on the predictability in hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2694-2708, November.
- Elliott, Graham & Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2013.
"Complete subset regressions,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 357-373.
- Elliott, Graham & Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Complete subset regressions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1st3n7z7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Chua, Chew Lian & Suardi, Sandy & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2013. "Predicting short-term interest rates using Bayesian model averaging: Evidence from weekly and high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-455.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
- Cheng, Xu & Hansen, Bruce E., 2015.
"Forecasting with factor-augmented regression: A frequentist model averaging approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 280-293.
- Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-046, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peñaranda, Francisco, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Yao, Juan & Alles, Lakshman, 2006. "Industry return predictability, timing and profitability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 122-141, April.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee, 2006. "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0616, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Pablo Pincheira, 2008. "Combining Tests of Predictive Ability Theory and Evidence for Chilean and Canadian Exchange Rates," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 459, Central Bank of Chile.
- Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
- Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Integrating Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1593-1646, June.
- Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011.
"Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 467-491, December.
- Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," NBER Working Papers 16648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2010. "A real-time trading rule," MPRA Paper 27148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
- Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2004. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics," Working papers 19, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2005. "Is learning a dimension of risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2605-2632, October.
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009.
"Learning in Financial Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 14646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Veronesi, Pietro & Pástor, Luboš, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009.
"Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 12814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stambaugh, Robert F. & Pástor, Luboš, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," CEPR Discussion Papers 6076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2008. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 13804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012.
"Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 695-716.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2010. "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? a long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Working Papers 2010-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2011. "Can VAR Models Capture Regime Shifts in Asset Returns? A Long-Horizon Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective," Working Papers 414, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
- Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2009. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? evidence from predictive regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
- P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
- Mazzotta, Stefano, 2008. "How important is asymmetric covariance for the risk premium of international assets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1636-1647, August.
- Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA.
- Chow, William W. & Fung, Michael K., 2008. "Volatility of stock price as predicted by patent data: An MGARCH perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 64-79, January.
- Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007.
"Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 35-80, January.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2009.
"Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 131-144.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
- Diego Nocetti & William T. Smith, 2006. "Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(36), pages 1-7.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan & Chiang, Thomas & Nandha, Mohan, 2010. "Symmetric and asymmetric US sector return volatilities in presence of oil, financial and economic risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3922-3932, August.
- Golosnoy, Vasyl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2008. "General uncertainty in portfolio selection: A case-based decision approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 718-734, September.
- Hui Guo, 2009. "Data Revisions And Out‐Of‐Sample Stock Return Predictability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 81-97, January.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & Yang, Yang, 2006. "Bagging binary and quantile predictors for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 465-497.
- Lillie Lam & Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Comparing Forecast Performance of Exchange Rate Models," Working Papers 0808, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2013. "Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5275-5284.
- Kim, J.W. & Leatham, D.J. & Bessler, D.A., 2007. "REITs' dynamics under structural change with unknown break points," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-58, March.
- Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2009. "Exploiting price misalignements," MPRA Paper 27147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Li, Yong & Huang, Wei-Ping & Zhang, Jie, 2013. "Forecasting volatility in the Chinese stock market under model uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 231-234.