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Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  2. Knut Lehre Seip & Yunus Yilmaz & Michael Schröder, 2019. "Comparing Sentiment- and Behavioral-Based Leading Indexes for Industrial Production: When Does Each Fail?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
  3. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  4. Milan Christian Wet & Ilse Botha, 2022. "Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 37-67, March.
  5. Jakob Fiedler & Josef Ruzicka & Thomas Theobald, 2019. "The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles," IMK Working Paper 198-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  6. Xin Long Xu & Hsing Hung Chen & Rong Rong Zhang, 2020. "The Impact of Intellectual Capital Efficiency on Corporate Sustainable Growth-Evidence from Smart Agriculture in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, June.
  7. Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu & Lyuyuan Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting Inflection Points: Hybrid Methods with Multiscale Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 537-575, February.
  8. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  9. Jeerawadee Pumjaroen & Preecha Vichitthamaros & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Cycle with a Structural Equation Model: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 47-57.
  10. Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi & Devi Datt Tewari, 2020. "Financial Stress Index and Economic Activity in South Africa: New Evidence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
  11. Soh, Ann-Ni, 2020. "A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 103854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
  13. Pawel M. Krolikowski & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2024. "Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 462-480, April.
  14. Ingrid-Mihaela Dragotă & Cosmin Octavian Cepoi & Lavinia Ştefan, 2023. "Threshold effect for the life insurance industry: evidence from OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(4), pages 799-820, October.
  15. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2016. "Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 125-129.
  16. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2021. "The day-of-the-week-effect on the volatility of commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  17. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
  18. Mahmoud Ayoub & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Financial ambiguity and oil prices," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.
  19. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  20. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
  21. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2015. "A further analysis of the conference board’s new Leading Economic Index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 446-453.
  22. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
  23. Lucio Masserini & Matilde Bini & Alessandro Zeli, 2021. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Riskiness Indicators After the 2008 and 2011 Economic Crises: The Case of Italian Manufacturing," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 499-513, August.
  24. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2023. "Predicting binary outcomes based on the pair-copula construction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3089-3119, June.
  25. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  26. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Predicting recessions using VIX–yield curve cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 409-422.
  27. Seungho Baek & Kwan Yong Lee & Merih Uctum & Seok Hee Oh, 2020. "Robo-Advisors: Machine Learning in Trend-Following ETF Investments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-15, August.
  28. Dalia Mansour-Ibrahim, 2023. "Are the Eurozone Financial and Business Cycles Convergent Across Time and Frequency?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 389-427, January.
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