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When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion

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Cited by:

  1. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  2. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2012. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2012, Bank of Finland.
  3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_037 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
  5. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2021. "What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 49-53, January.
  6. Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2012. "Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 833-849.
  7. Behrens, Christoph & Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian, 2018. "Testing the optimality of inflation forecasts under flexible loss with random forests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 270-277.
  8. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
  9. Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
  10. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2007. "Aufschwung in Deutschland bleibt kräftig," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4300, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  11. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
  12. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 787, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2014. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 69-81, February.
  14. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2013. "How do individual forecasters change their views? An analysis with micro panel data," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 295/2013 - Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 5, pages 79-92, University of Lodz.
  15. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
  16. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  17. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
  18. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  19. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  20. Ulrich Fritsche & Jörg Döpke, 2006. "Treffgenauigkeit, Rationalität und Streuung von Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 34-53.
  21. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
  22. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  23. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2007. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2007," Kiel Discussion Papers 443/444, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  24. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata, 2019. "Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(40), pages 4411-4424, August.
  25. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
  26. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  27. Döhrn Roland & Schmidt Christoph M., 2011. "Information or Institution?: On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 9-27, February.
  28. Lehmann Robert & Wollmershäuser Timo, 2020. "The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 235-270, June.
  29. Atalla, Tarek & Joutz, Fred & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1178-1192.
  30. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Lamla, Michael J. & Wood, Andrew, 2019. "The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 222-240.
  31. Herman O. Stekler & Raj M. Talwar, 2011. "Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  32. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2014. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 69-81, February.
  33. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries," Discussion Papers 76, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  34. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
  35. Birger Antholz, 2006. "Geschichte der quantitativen Konjunkturprognose-Evaluation in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 12-33.
  36. Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2021. "Disagreeing during Deflations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1867-1885, October.
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