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Geschichte der quantitativen Konjunkturprognose-Evaluation in Deutschland

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  • Birger Antholz

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  • Birger Antholz, 2006. "Geschichte der quantitativen Konjunkturprognose-Evaluation in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 12-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:75-2-2
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.75.2.12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dopke, Jorg & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2006. "When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-135.
    2. Gebhard KirchgÄssner, 1985. "Sind die Prognosen der Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute schwach rational? — Eine Antwort auf Neumann und Buscher," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 121(2), pages 331-345, June.
    3. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche, 2004. "Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 399, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2005. "On the Rationality of the General Public," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-13, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    5. Filip Keereman, 1999. "The track record of the Commission forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Marcus Kappler, 2006. "Wie genau sind die Konjunkturprognosen der Institute für Deutschland?," List Forum Chapter, in: List Gesellschaft e.V. (ed.), List Forum Band 32, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 175-189, List Gesellschaft e.V..
    7. Heilemann, Ullrich, 1981. "Zur Prognoseleistung ökonometrischer Konjunkturmodelle für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 44, number 44.
    8. Kappler, Marcus, 2006. "Wie genau sind die Konjunkturprognosen der Institute für Deutschland?," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-004, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Thiess Büttner ; Gustav-Adolf Horn, 1993. "Wie gut sind Prognosen?: Eine Überprüfung der Vorhersagen der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose und des DIW am Beispiel des BSP," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 73, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Ulrich Fritsche & Jörg Döpke, 2005. "Forecast Errors and the Macroeconomy: A Non-Linear Relationship?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 498, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Ulrich K. Müller & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2006. "Are forecasters reluctant to revise their predictions? Some German evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 401-413.
    12. Dicke, Hugo & Glismann, Hans H., 2004. "Vom Elend der Konjunkturprognosen," Research Notes 15, Deutsche Bank Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Döhrn, Roland, 2019. "70 Jahre RWI Konjunkturberichte: Aus der Frühzeit der Konjunkturforschung am RWI," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 70(2), pages 33-43.
    2. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    3. Heinisch Katja & Behrens Christoph & Döpke Jörg & Foltas Alexander & Fritsche Ulrich & Köhler Tim & Müller Karsten & Puckelwald Johannes & Reichmayr Hannes, 2024. "The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From Forecasts to Evaluation and Comparison," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(3), pages 277-288, June.
    4. Heinisch, Katja & Behrens, Christoph & Döpke, Jörg & Foltas, Alexander & Fritsche, Ulrich & Köhler, Tim & Müller, Karsten & Puckelwald, Johannes & Reichmayr, Hannes, 2023. "The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From forecasts to evaluation and comparison," IWH Technical Reports 1/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Alfred Steinherr, 2006. "80 Years of Business Cycle Studies at DIW Berlin: Editorial," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 5-11.

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