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Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
  2. Jason Dana & Robyn Dawes & Nathanial Peterson, 2013. "Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(5), pages 512-520, September.
  3. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
  4. Oberstone Joel, 2010. "Comparing English Premier League Goalkeepers: Identifying the Pitch Actions that Differentiate the Best from the Rest," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
  5. Lennart Sjöberg, 2009. "Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1-18.
  6. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
  7. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  8. Kay Blaufus & Jonathan Bob & Daniela Lorenz & Matthias Trinks, 2016. "How Will the Court Decide? – Tax Experts’ versus Laymen's Predictions," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 771-792, October.
  9. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  10. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  11. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Mantilla, Cesar, 2019. "Emotional expressions by sports teams: An analysis of World Cup soccer player portraits," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
  12. Michael Hanke & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Football championships and jersey sponsors’ stock prices: an empirical investigation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 228-241, March.
  13. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
  14. Alessandro Innocenti & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Ricciuti, 2021. "The Importance of Betting Early," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, April.
  15. Oberstone Joel, 2011. "Comparing Team Performance of the English Premier League, Serie A, and La Liga for the 2008-2009 Season," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
  16. Nilsson, Håkan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
  17. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
  18. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:5:p:381-391 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Oberstone Joel, 2009. "Differentiating the Top English Premier League Football Clubs from the Rest of the Pack: Identifying the Keys to Success," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-29, July.
  21. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
  22. Mario Gutiérrez-Roig & Carlota Segura & Jordi Duch & Josep Perelló, 2016. "Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift Strategies Emerge as Unintended Patterns in Market Direction Guesses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
  23. Anna Dorfman & Yoella Bereby-Meyer & Simone Moran, 2013. "When Feeling Skillful Impairs Coordination in a Lottery Selection Task," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-6, June.
  24. Peter Ayton & Dilek Onkal & Lisa McReynolds, 2011. "Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(5), pages 381-391, July.
  25. Butler, David & Butler, Robert & Eakins, John, 2021. "Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 170-182.
  26. Andersson, Patric, 2005. "Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident : a research not on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment," Papers 05-37, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  27. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
  28. Scheibehenne, Benjamin & Broder, Arndt, 2007. "Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 415-426.
  29. Spassova, Gerri & Palmeira, Mauricio & Andrade, Eduardo B., 2018. "A ratings pattern heuristic in judgments of expertise: When being right Looks wrong," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 26-47.
  30. Andreas Heuer & Oliver Rubner, 2014. "Optimizing the Prediction Process: From Statistical Concepts to the Case Study of Soccer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-9, September.
  31. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
  32. Tunaru Radu S & Viney Howard P, 2010. "Valuations of Soccer Players from Statistical Performance Data," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, April.
  33. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:5:p:512-520 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  35. Goldstein, Daniel G. & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2009. "Fast and frugal forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 760-772, October.
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