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On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems
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Cited by:
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter & Piloiu, Andreea, 2015. "Network linkages to predict bank distress," Working Paper Series 1828, European Central Bank.
- Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017.
"Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries,"
OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
- Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2015. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1250, OECD Publishing.
- Paola Cerchiello & Giancarlo Nicola & Samuel Rönnqvist & Peter Sarlin, 2017. "Deep Learning Bank Distress from News and Numerical Financial Data," DEM Working Papers Series 140, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
- André K. Anundsen & Karsten Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Kasper Kragh‐Sørensen, 2016.
"Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1311, November.
- André K. Anundsen & Frank Hansen & Karsten Gerdrup & Kasper Kragh-Sørensen, 2014. "Bubbles and crises: The role of house prices and credit," Working Paper 2014/14, Norges Bank.
- Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019.
"Residential investment and recession predictability,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
- Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
- Yuichiro Ito & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Koji Nakamura & Takashi Nakazawa, 2014. "New Financial Activity Indexes: Early Warning System for Financial Imbalances in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 14-E-7, Bank of Japan.
- Zsuzsanna Hosszu & Gergely Lakos, 2022. "Early Warning Performance of Univariate Credit-to-GDP Gaps," MNB Occasional Papers 2022/142, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018.
"Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
- Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying Excessive Credit Growth and Leverage," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
- Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Working Paper Series 1723, European Central Bank.
- Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018.
"Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Papers 1610.08230, arXiv.org.
- Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2014. "Ending over-lending : Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Research Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland.
- Ruoxi Zhang & Xue Li & Satish Chand, 2019. "An Early Warning Of An Impending Currency Crisis In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1101-1125, December.
- Orsolya Csortos & Zoltán Szalai, 2013. "Assessment of macroeconomic imbalance indicators," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(3), pages 14-24, October.
- Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022.
"A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Elizabeth Jane Casabianca & Michele Catalano & Lorenzo Forni & Elena Giarda & Simone Passeri, 2019. "An Early Warning System for banking crises: From regression-based analysis to machine learning techniques," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0235, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_011 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ons Jedidi & Jean Sébastien Pentecote, 2015.
"Robust Signals for Banking Crises,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1617-1629.
- Ons Jedidi & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2015. "Robust Signals for Banking Crises," Post-Print halshs-01184074, HAL.
- Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
- Stijn Ferrari & Mara Pirovano & Wanda Cornacchia, 2015. "Identifying early warning indicators for real estate-related banking crises," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 08, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Sarlin, Peter & Rönnqvist, Samuel, 2016. "Bank networks from text: interrelations, centrality and determinants," Working Paper Series 1876, European Central Bank.
- Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024.
"Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
- Tran Huynh & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: can political indicators improve prediction?," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Gross, Marco & Behn, Markus, 2016.
"Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy,"
Working Paper Series
1935, European Central Bank.
- Behn, Markus & Gross, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2016. "Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy," ESRB Working Paper Series 17, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Marcela Guachamín & Diana Ramírez‐Cifuentes & Olga Delgado, 2020. "An Uncertainty Thermometer to Measure the Macroeconomic‐Financial Risk in South American Countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 854-890, August.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014.
"Predicting distress in European banks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
- Betz, Frank & Oprica, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "Predicting distress in European banks," Working Paper Series 1597, European Central Bank.
- Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2017. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," ESRB Working Paper Series 45, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021.
"Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?," Working Paper Series 2025, European Central Bank.
- Fendel Ralf & Stremmel Hanno, 2016. "Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Geographical Contagion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 349-388, May.
- Tuomas Antero Peltonen & Michela Rancan & Peter Sarlin, 2019.
"Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 963-990, April.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter & Rancan, Michela, 2015. "Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises," Working Paper Series 1866, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013.
"Mapping the state of financial stability,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2011. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Working Paper Series 1382, European Central Bank.
- Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017.
"Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
- Behn, Markus & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem, 2016. "Predicting vulnerabilities in the EU banking sector: the role of global and domestic factors," ESRB Working Paper Series 29, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.
- Daniel O. Beltran & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Fiona A. Paine, 2021. "Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1307, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2014. "Ending over-lending: Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland.
- Ruoxi Zhang & Xue Li & Satish Chand, 2018. "An Early Warning Of An Impending Currency Crisis In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1101-1125, July.
- Samuel Ronnqvist & Peter Sarlin, 2014. "Bank Networks from Text: Interrelations, Centrality and Determinants," Papers 1406.7752, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2014. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems: Comment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 338-340.
- Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015.
"Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
- Sarlin, Peter & Laina, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Working Paper Series 1758, European Central Bank.
- Spelta, A. & Flori, A. & Pecora, N. & Pammolli, F., 2021. "Financial crises: Uncovering self-organized patterns and predicting stock markets instability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 736-756.
- Sarlin, Peter & Holopainen, Markus, 2016. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1900, European Central Bank.
- Tarika Sikarwar & Anivesh Goyal & Harshita Mathur, 2020. "Household Debt, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Growth of India: Is it Alarming for India?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 229-248, February.
- Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2020. "Cross-border lending and the international transmission of banking crises," Discussion Papers 2020/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- J'ozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Papers 1601.06204, arXiv.org.
- Samuel Ronnqvist & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Detect & Describe: Deep learning of bank stress in the news," Papers 1507.07870, arXiv.org.
- Fabrizio Ferriani & Wanda Cornacchia & Paolo Farroni & Eliana Ferrara & Francesco Guarino & Francesco Pisanti, 2019. "An early warning system for less significant Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 480, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2018. "Can bubble theory foresee banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-81.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019.
"Residential investment and recession predictability,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
- Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Samuel Ronnqvist & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "Bank distress in the news: Describing events through deep learning," Papers 1603.05670, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2016.
- Voutilainen, Ville, 2017. "Wavelet decomposition of the financial cycle : An early warning system for financial tsunamis," Research Discussion Papers 11/2017, Bank of Finland.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_011 is not listed on IDEAS
- Diptes C. P. Bhimjee, 2022. "Adaptive Early Warning Systems: An Axiomatic Approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 145-164.
- Voutilainen, Ville, 2017. "Wavelet decomposition of the financial cycle: An early warning system for financial tsunamis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Xianglong Liu, 2023. "Towards Better Banking Crisis Prediction: Could an Automatic Variable Selection Process Improve the Performance?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 288-312, June.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- Constantin, Andreea & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "Network linkages to predict bank distress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 226-241.
- Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015.
"Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
- Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Research Discussion Papers 14/2014, Bank of Finland.
- Sarlin, Peter & Laina, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Working Paper Series 1758, European Central Bank.
- von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_014 is not listed on IDEAS
- Patrizio Lainà & Juho Nyholm & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 18-35, January.
- Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_027 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lang, Jan Hannes & Izzo, Cosimo & Fahr, Stephan & Ruzicka, Josef, 2019. "Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises," Occasional Paper Series 219, European Central Bank.
- Gould, David M. & Melecky, Martin & Panterov, Georgi, 2016. "Finance, growth and shared prosperity: Beyond credit deepening," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 737-758.
- Felipe Clavijo Ramírez & Jorge Luis Hurtado Guarín & Oscar Fernando Jaulín Méndez & Javier Pirateque Niño, 2016. "El requerimiento de capital contracíclico en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 963, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Andrés Alonso Robisco & José Manuel Carbó Martínez, 2022. "Measuring the model risk-adjusted performance of machine learning algorithms in credit default prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-35, December.
- Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
- Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.
- Paolo Giudici & Peter Sarlin & Alessandro Spelta, 2016. "The multivariate nature of systemic risk: direct and common exposures," DEM Working Papers Series 118, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
- Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.
- Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2014, Bank of Finland.
- Mezei, József & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 41-50.