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Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model

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Cited by:

  1. Huber, Florian, 2017. "Structural breaks in Taylor rule based exchange rate models — Evidence from threshold time varying parameter models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 48-52.
  2. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
  3. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber, 2020. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 168-186, March.
  4. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
  5. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
  6. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Has the Phillips Curve Flattened?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "In Quest of Truth: The War of Methods in Economics," MPRA Paper 8866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  9. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
  10. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  11. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2020. "Radial basis functions neural networks for nonlinear time series analysis and time-varying effects of supply shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  12. Mr. Alessandro Rebucci & Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli, 2003. "Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," IMF Working Papers 2003/171, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
  14. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Marginal Likelihood Estimation with the Cross-Entropy Method," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 256-285, March.
  15. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.
  16. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
  17. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
  18. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  19. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
  20. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2012. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 162-175.
  21. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
  22. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2006. "Structural Changes in the US Economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
  24. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
  25. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
  26. Halberstadt, Arne, 2015. "The term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy: Learning about economic dynamics from a FAVAR," Discussion Papers 02/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  27. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
  28. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Panel Index Var Models: Specification, Estimation, Testing And Leading Indicators," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  29. Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński & Grzegorz Koloch, 2010. "Forecasting the Polish Zloty with Non-Linear Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 151-167, March.
  30. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2004. "On the Time Variations of US Monetary Policy: Who is right?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  31. Masataka Eguchi & Toshiya Hatano, 2023. "What is fiscal sustainability?―Transversality condition, Domar condition, the fiscal theory of the price level―," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 1-29, September.
  32. Haakon Kavli & Nicola Viegi, 2017. "Are Determinants of Portfolio Flows Always the Same? - South African Results from a Time Varying Parameter Var Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 3-27, March.
  33. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  34. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  36. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  38. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
  39. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Trinh Thi Mai & Moade Shubita, 2021. "Development of Vietnamese stock market: Influence of domestic macroeconomic environment and regional markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1435-1458, January.
  40. Kansho Piotr Otsubo, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan: What Combination of Policies Should Be Used?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01n02), pages 1-25, February.
  41. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Utkarsh Kumar & Wasim Ahmad & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2024. "Bayesian Markov switching model for BRICS currencies' exchange rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2322-2340, September.
  45. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.
  46. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  47. Kelly Burns, 2016. "A Reconsideration of the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle: An Alternative Approach to Model Estimation and Forecast Evaluation," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 20(1), pages 41-83, March.
  48. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
  49. M’bakob Gilles Brice & Mandeng ma Ntamack Jules, 2024. "Influence of psychological exchange rates (PER) on forex price formation: theory, empirical, and experimental evidence," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(9), pages 1-53, September.
  50. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
  51. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
  52. Lisi, Francesco & Medio, Alfredo, 1997. "Is a random walk the best exchange rate predictor?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 255-267, June.
  53. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
  54. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  55. Huber Florian, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates using multivariate threshold models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 193-210, January.
  56. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
  57. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  58. D.O. Olayungbo & A.E. Akinlo, 2016. "Insurance penetration and economic growth in Africa: Dynamic effects analysis using Bayesian TVP-VAR approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1150390-115, December.
  59. Poyesh Bahadori Jahromi & Hojatallah Goudarzi, 2014. "The Study of Co-Integration and Casual Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Insurance Penetration Ratio," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 853-863, July.
  60. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. So Jung Hwang & Hyunduk Suh, 2021. "Analyzing Dynamic Connectedness in Korean Housing Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 591-609, January.
  62. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
  63. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Fast computation of the deviance information criterion for latent variable models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 847-859.
  64. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
  65. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
  66. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
  67. Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 2003/102, International Monetary Fund.
  68. Haskamp, Ulrich, 2017. "Forecasting exchange rates: The time-varying relationship between exchange rates and Taylor rule fundamentals," Ruhr Economic Papers 704, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  69. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  70. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
  71. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Bowen Fu, 2019. "Bubbles and crises: Replicating the Anundsen et al. (2016) results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 822-826, August.
  73. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
  74. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
  76. Ramazan EKİNCİ & Osman TÜZÜN & Fatih CEYLAN & Hakan KAHYAOĞLU, 2017. "Dışa Açıklık ile İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Seçilmiş AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Üzerine Zamana Göre Değişen Parametreli Bir Analiz Algıları," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(31).
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