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Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  2. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
  3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
  4. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  5. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 2000. "Sales forecasting updates: how good are they in practice?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 369-382.
  6. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
  7. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. Patrick Mcallister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2008. "Agreement and Accuracy in Consensus Forecasts of the UK Commercial Property Market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, June.
  9. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Singleton, Carl & Reade, J. James & Brown, Alasdair, 2020. "Going with your gut: The (In)accuracy of forecast revisions in a football score prediction game," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  11. repec:wrk:wrkemf:33 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Sebastiano Manzan, 2011. "Differential Interpretation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 993-1017, August.
  13. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
  14. Ulrich K. Müller & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2006. "Are forecasters reluctant to revise their predictions? Some German evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 401-413.
  15. Dupuy, A., 2005. "An evaluation of labour market forecasts by type of education and occupation for 2002," ROA Working Paper 1E, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  16. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
  18. Bert Minne & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2008. "Skill gaps in the EU: role for education and training policies," CPB Document 162.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  19. Gultekin Isiklar & Kajal Lahiri & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross‐country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725, September.
  20. Michael Pedersen, 2024. "Judgment in macroeconomic output growth predictions: Efficiency, accuracy and persistence," Papers 2404.04105, arXiv.org.
  21. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  22. Dupuy Arnaud, 2005. "An evaluation of labour market forecasts by type of education and occupation for 2002," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  23. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  24. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
  25. Michael P Clements, 2014. "Assessing the Evidence of Macro- Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  26. Dupuy, A., 2009. "An evaluation of the forecast of the indicator of the labour market gap," ROA Technical Report 003, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  27. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  28. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
  29. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September.
  31. Jakab M., Zoltán & Kovács, Mihály András & Kiss, Gergely, 2006. "Mit tanultunk?. A jegybanki előrejelzések szerepe az inflációs cél követésének első öt évében Magyarországon [What are we studying?. The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation target," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1101-1134.
  32. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  34. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad, 2014. "Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  35. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.
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