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On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting

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Cited by:

  1. Viktor Todorov & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Information gains from using short‐dated options for measuring and forecasting volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 368-391, March.
  2. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
  3. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2015. "The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-54.
  4. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
  5. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
  6. Christian Leschinski & Michelle Voges & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "A comparison of semiparametric tests for fractional cointegration," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1997-2030, August.
  7. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Variance Risk Premia," Finance 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Christian Leschinski & Michelle Voges & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Integration and Disintegration of EMU Government Bond Markets," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, March.
  9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis & Plastun, Alex, 2018. "Is market fear persistent? A long-memory analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-147.
  10. Timothy Sharp & Steven Li & David Allen, 2010. "Empirical performance of affine option pricing models: evidence from the Australian index options market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 501-514.
  11. Haukvik, Nicole & Cheraghali, Hamid & Molnár, Peter, 2024. "The role of investors’ fear in crude oil volatility forecasting," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
  12. Kruse, Robinson & Leschinski, Christian & Will, Michael, 2016. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy under Long Memory - With an Application to Volatility Forecasting," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-571, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  13. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steven & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Option Anomalies and the Pricing Kernel," Working Papers 11-17, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  14. Markellos, Raphael N. & Psychoyios, Dimitris, 2018. "Interest rate volatility and risk management: Evidence from CBOE Treasury options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-202.
  15. Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Seiler, Volker, 2020. "The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  16. Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Variance dynamics: Joint evidence from options and high-frequency returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 280-287, January.
  17. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
  18. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Volatility Is Priced in Equities," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 769-790, December.
  19. Andrew J. Patton & Kevin Sheppard, 2008. "Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Forecasts," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe22, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  20. Zhiyuan Pan & Yudong Wang & Li Liu & Qing Wang, 2019. "Improving volatility prediction and option valuation using VIX information: A volatility spillover GARCH model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 744-776, June.
  21. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
  22. Haugom, Erik & Langeland, Henrik & Molnár, Peter & Westgaard, Sjur, 2014. "Forecasting volatility of the U.S. oil market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-14.
  23. Aleksandar Mijatović & Paul Schneider, 2014. "Empirical Asset Pricing with Nonlinear Risk Premia," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 479-506.
  24. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
  25. Qiao, Gaoxiu & Teng, Yuxin & Li, Weiping & Liu, Wenwen, 2019. "Improving volatility forecasting based on Chinese volatility index information: Evidence from CSI 300 index and futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 133-151.
  26. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2018. "Variance risk premium and equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 462-470.
  27. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009. "Identifying volatility risk premia from fixed income Asian options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 652-661, April.
  28. Kellard, Neil M. & Jiang, Ying & Wohar, Mark, 2015. "Spurious long memory, uncommon breaks and the implied–realized volatility puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-54.
  29. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
  30. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2009. "Understanding Index Option Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4493-4529, November.
  31. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  32. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tédongap, 2016. "Which parametric model for conditional skewness?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1237-1271, October.
  33. Aragon, George O. & Spencer Martin, J., 2012. "A unique view of hedge fund derivatives usage: Safeguard or speculation?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 436-456.
  34. Wu, Feng & Myers, Robert J. & Guan, Zhengfei & Wang, Zhiguang, 2015. "Risk-adjusted implied volatility and its performance in forecasting realized volatility in corn futures prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 260-274.
  35. Fornari, Fabio, 2010. "Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 722-743, September.
  36. Fornari, Fabio, 2008. "Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives," Working Paper Series 859, European Central Bank.
  37. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Stancu, Andrei & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The information content of short-term options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  38. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & McClelland, Andrew, 2009. "The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1033-1038, June.
  39. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 137-170, February.
  40. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
  41. Tim Bollerslev & Daniela Osterrieder & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2011. "Risk and Return: Long-Run Relationships, Fractional Cointegration, and Return Predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2011-51, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  42. Maciej Augustyniak & Mathieu Boudreault, 2017. "Mitigating Interest Rate Risk in Variable Annuities: An Analysis of Hedging Effectiveness under Model Risk," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 502-525, October.
  43. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2014. "The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 303-320.
  44. Bollerslev, Tim & Osterrieder, Daniela & Sizova, Natalia & Tauchen, George, 2013. "Risk and return: Long-run relations, fractional cointegration, and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 409-424.
  45. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
  46. DeMiguel, Victor & Plyakha, Yuliya & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2013. "Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(6), pages 1813-1845, December.
  47. Rita Laura D’Ecclesia & Daniele Clementi, 2021. "Volatility in the stock market: ANN versus parametric models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1101-1127, April.
  48. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun, 2023. "The effect of uncertainty on stock market volatility and correlation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  49. Daniel Jubinski & Amy F. Lipton, 2012. "Equity volatility, bond yields, and yield spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 480-503, May.
  50. Chen, Sipeng & Li, Gang, 2023. "Why does option-implied volatility forecast realized volatility? Evidence from news events," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  51. Daniel Borup & Bent Jesper Christensen & Yunus Emre Ergemen, 2019. "Assessing predictive accuracy in panel data models with long-range dependence," CREATES Research Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  52. Papantonis, Ioannis, 2016. "Volatility risk premium implications of GARCH option pricing models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 104-115.
  53. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
  54. Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 598-605.
  55. Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Volatility measures and Value-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 848-863.
  56. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2018. "Volatility in equity markets and monetary policy rate uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 68-83.
  57. Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael N. Markellos & Lazaros Symeonidis, 2016. "An International Comparison of Implied, Realized, and GARCH Volatility Forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(12), pages 1164-1193, December.
  58. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
  60. Symitsi, Efthymia & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Kourtis, Apostolos & Markellos, Raphael, 2018. "Covariance forecasting in equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-168.
  61. Zhi Dong & Tien Foo Sing, 2021. "Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(1), pages 79-123, April.
  62. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "A global factor in variance risk premia and local bond pricing," Bank of England working papers 576, Bank of England.
  63. Slim, Skander & Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel, 2020. "How informative are variance risk premium and implied volatility for Value-at-Risk prediction? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 22-37.
  64. Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
  65. Lars A. Lochstoer & Tyler Muir, 2022. "Volatility Expectations and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1055-1096, April.
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