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Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Yen-Hsien Lee & Ting-Huei Liao & Ya-Ling Huang & Tzu-Ling Huang, 2015. "Dynamic Spillovers between Oil and Stock Markets: New Approaches at Spillover Index," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 178-189, April.
  2. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  3. Morana, Claudio, 2017. "Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-96.
  4. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
  5. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  6. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2019. "Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, February.
  7. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
  8. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  9. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  10. O-Chia Chuang & Chenxu Yang, 2022. "Identifying the Determinants of Crude Oil Market Volatility by the Multivariate GARCH-MIDAS Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
  11. Zhu, Bo & Lin, Renda & Liu, Jiahao, 2020. "Magnitude and persistence of extreme risk spillovers in the global energy market: A high-dimensional left-tail interdependence perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  12. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
  13. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
  14. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
  15. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Mikropoulou, Christina & Papana, Angeliki, 2016. "Does the S&P500 index lead the crude oil dynamics? A complexity-based approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 239-246.
  16. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
  17. Alola, Andrew A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2022. "Outlook of oil prices and volatility from 1970 to 2040 through global energy mix-security from production to reserves: A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  18. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
  19. Jammazi, Rania & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 173-187.
  20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
  21. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & André Cordeiro Valério, 2020. "Global shocks and emerging economies: disentangling the commodity roller coaster," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 623, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  22. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  23. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  24. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Gareth Downing & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2024. "Exploring the role of oil shocks on the financial stability of Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1804-1819, April.
  25. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, speculation, and energy futures returns: Evidence from a quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
  26. Carolina Effio Saldivar & José Herskovits & Juan Pablo Luna & Claudia Sagastizábal, 2019. "Multidimensional Calibration Of Crude Oil And Refined Products Via Semidefinite Programming Techniques," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-31, February.
  27. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
  28. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
  29. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2019. "Energy shocks pricing model: A non-linear US sectoral based analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
  30. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2016. "The Volatility of Oil Prices: What Factors?," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 98-110, March.
  31. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
  32. Sun, Chuanwang & Min, Jialin & Sun, Jiacheng & Gong, Xu, 2023. "The role of China's crude oil futures in world oil futures market and China's financial market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  33. Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2024. "The shape of the Treasury yield curve and commodity prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  34. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
  35. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
  36. Celso Brunetti & Jeffrey H. Harris & Bahattin Büyükşahin, 2024. "Crude Oil Price Movements and Institutional Traders," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
  37. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
  38. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
  39. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
  40. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
  41. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  42. Márcio Poletti Laurini & Roberto Baltieri Mauad & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2016. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility-Double Jump Model: an application for oil assets," Working Papers Series 415, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  43. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
  44. Dagher, Leila & Hasanov, Fakhri J., 2023. "Oil market shocks and financial instability in Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-195.
  45. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Bin Mo, 2020. "Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
  46. Öztunç Kaymak, Öznur & Kaymak, Yiğit, 2022. "Prediction of crude oil prices in COVID-19 outbreak using real data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  47. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal, 2016. "Does speculation impact what factors determine oil futures prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 119-122.
  48. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
  49. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  50. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmed, Ali, 2018. "The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 30-39.
  51. Cheng, Xian & Wu, Peng & Liao, Stephen Shaoyi & Wang, Xuelian, 2023. "An integrated model for crude oil forecasting: Causality assessment and technical efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  52. Fabian Lutzenberger & Benedikt Gleich & Herbert G. Mayer & Christian Stepanek & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2017. "Metals: resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 927-958, November.
  53. Marc Gronwald & Jana Lippelt, 2014. "Kurz zum Klima: Fundamentales zu Spekulation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 58-59, November.
  54. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
  55. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2018. "The asymmetric return-volatility relationship of commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 378-387.
  57. Chen, Xin & Mu, Hailin & Li, Huanan & Gui, Shusen, 2014. "Using stockpile delegation to improve China׳s strategic oil policy: A multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 28-42.
  58. Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Wahab, M.I.M. & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Forecasting the aggregate oil price volatility in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 320-332.
  59. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  60. Qi Zhang & Yi Hu & Jianbin Jiao & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Exploring the Trend of Commodity Prices: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, August.
  61. Zhu, Bo & Liu, Jiahao & Lin, Renda & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Cross-border systemic risk spillovers in the global oil system: Does the oil trade pattern matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  62. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
  63. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
  64. Benoît Guilleminot & Jean-Jacques Ohana & Steve Ohana, 2014. "The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 767-792, November.
  65. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 278-288.
  66. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Squires, Matthew & Thorp, Susan & Yeung, Danny, 2017. "Determinants of the crude oil futures curve: Inventory, consumption and volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-67.
  67. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Gabauer, David, 2021. "A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  68. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2015. "The role of financial speculation in the energy future markets: A new time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 112-122.
  69. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
  70. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Thuy‐Duong Tô, 2016. "The Return–Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 127-152, February.
  71. Li, Li & Chen, Hongyi & Xiang, Jingjie, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty, financial distress and real economic activities: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  72. Mustanen, Dmitri & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata, 2022. "The power of investors’ optimism and pessimism in oil market forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  73. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
  74. Priya, Pragati & Pal, Debdatta, 2024. "Does crude oil price volatility respond asymmetrically to financial shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  75. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2020. "Risk appetite and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  76. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
  77. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Thomas, Alice Carole & Wang, Jianxin, 2023. "The economic impact of daily volatility persistence on energy markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  78. Sharma, Shahil & Rodriguez, Ivan, 2019. "The diminishing hedging role of crude oil: Evidence from time varying financialization," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
  79. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2021. "Do China's macro-financial factors determine the Shanghai crude oil futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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